SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5LLDLL13th1–2Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5WWDWW3rd
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
SK Beveren
Union St. Gilloise
10
Shots
10
4
Shots on target
4
6
Corners
3
13
Fouls
11
1
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
1
1
Offsides
4
472
Passes
425
54%
Possession %
46%
0.47
xG
0.69
18%
71%
1 · SK BeverenXUnion St. Gilloise · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
37%
Both score
49%
Model pick
Union St. Gilloise 71%
Likely score
0-2 12%
Expected goals
0.77 – 2.29
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
SK Beveren
10.6%
9.41
6.50 BetVictor
15.4%
-4.8
Match result
Draw
18.3%
5.47
4.90 Betano
20.4%
-2.1
Match result
Union St. Gilloise
71.1%
1.41
1.50 Betano
66.7%
+4.4
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.5%
1.23
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-2.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.5%
5.39
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
59.1%
1.69
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-3.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
40.9%
2.45
2.42 Betano
41.3%
-0.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
36.7%
2.72
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-4.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
63.3%
1.58
1.60 Betano
62.5%
+0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
48.9%
2.04
1.72 Betano
58.1%
-9.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
51.1%
1.96
2.15 Betfair
46.5%
+4.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Union St. Gilloise favoured against SK Beveren
Our model makes SK Beveren 11% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 18% and Union St. Gilloise at 71%. The goal projection is 0.77 for SK Beveren against 2.29 for Union St. Gilloise — a commanding edge to Union St. Gilloise on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Union St. Gilloise is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 29% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
0-2 12%
0-1 10%
1-2 9%
0-3 9%
1-1 9%
This season
Season records for SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SK Beveren
Metric
Union St. Gilloise
1.80
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
0.80
Goals conceded
0.40 (better)
1.38
Expected goals (xG)
2.32 (better)
—
Big chances *
—
3.75
Shots on target
8.25 (better)
10.00
Total shots
21.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00
Corners
6.00
52.0
Possession %
56.8 (better)
476
Passes
479 (better)
—
Tackles
—
9.00 (better)
Fouls
11.25
2.75
Offsides
0.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.75
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
1.00
Red cards
0.25 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
SK Beveren v 
Union St. Gilloise