Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5WDLLL7th1–1Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5LDLWL18th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Standard Liege
Kortrijk
18
Shots
14
6
Shots on target
6
10
Corners
4
7
Fouls
16
3
Yellow cards
3
—
Red cards
—
0
Offsides
2
521
Passes
345
60%
Possession %
40%
1.41
xG
1.58
63%
22%
14%
1 · Standard LiegeXKortrijk · 2
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Both score
47%
Model pick
Standard Liege 63%
Likely score
1-0 12%
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.78
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Standard Liege
63.3%
1.58
1.78 Betano
56.2%
+7.1
Match result
Draw
22.5%
4.45
4.25 Betano
23.5%
-1.1
Match result
Kortrijk
14.2%
7.03
5.40 Betano
18.5%
-4.3
Total goals
Over 1.5
75.4%
1.33
1.24 Betano
80.6%
-5.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
24.6%
4.07
4.40 BetVictor
22.7%
+1.9
Total goals
Over 2.5
50.3%
1.99
1.72 Betano
58.1%
-7.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
49.7%
2.01
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+4.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
28.3%
3.53
2.77 Betano
36.1%
-7.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
71.7%
1.40
1.47 Betano
68.0%
+3.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
46.8%
2.14
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
-10.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
53.2%
1.88
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
+7.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Standard Liege favoured against Kortrijk
Our model makes Standard Liege 63% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 22% and Kortrijk at 14%. The goal projection is 1.90 for Standard Liege against 0.78 for Kortrijk — a commanding edge to Standard Liege on expected output. A combined 2.69 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Standard Liege is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Standard Liege
Metric
Kortrijk
1.00 (better)
Goals scored
0.60
1.80 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
1.28 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.07
—
Big chances *
—
4.00 (better)
Shots on target
2.50
14.00 (better)
Total shots
11.75
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.33 (better)
Corners
4.00
52.3 (better)
Possession %
48.0
500 (better)
Passes
425
—
Tackles
—
9.67 (better)
Fouls
12.50
1.00 (better)
Offsides
2.00
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.50 (better)
Yellow cards
2.75
1.00
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Standard Liege v 
Kortrijk