Anderlecht v KVC Westerlo

5th4–19th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Anderlecht		KVC Westerlo
22	Shots	12
8	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	5
8	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	1
551	Passes	453
55%	Possession %	45%
2.63	xG	0.77

Over 1.5: 83%
Over 2.5: 61%
Over 3.5: 39%
Both score: 63%

Model pick: Anderlecht 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.36

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

KVC Westerlo 0

3.82Marathonbet · fair 3.44 · qualifies at 3.54+ · 0.99u

Why this price?

Back KVC Westerlo 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.82 with Marathonbet — KVC Westerlo to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 24%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.44. The offered 3.82 implies only 26%, so the price is 11.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.99 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Anderlecht 1.81, KVC Westerlo 1.36.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Anderlecht	47.7%	2.10	1.62 Betano	61.7%	-14.1
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.17	4.60 Betano	21.7%	+2.2
Match result	KVC Westerlo	28.4%	3.53	5.20 Betano	19.2%	+9.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.9%	1.21	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-4.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.1%	5.86	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	61.3%	1.63	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-6.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	38.7%	2.58	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	+4.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	39.0%	2.57	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-8.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	61.0%	1.64	1.75 Betano	57.1%	+3.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	62.6%	1.60	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	37.4%	2.67	2.60 Betfair	38.5%	-1.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Anderlecht favoured against KVC Westerlo

Our model makes Anderlecht 48% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and KVC Westerlo at 28%. The goal projection is 1.81 for Anderlecht against 1.36 for KVC Westerlo — a clear edge to Anderlecht on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 7%; 1-2 7%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Anderlecht and KVC Westerlo
Anderlecht		KVC Westerlo
10	Played	11
6-1-3	W-D-L	4-2-5
1.90	Pts / game	1.27
1.30	Goals for / game	2.36
1.10	Goals against / game	2.73
60%	Over 2.5	91%
30%	BTTS	73%
40%	Clean sheets	18%
40%	Failed to score	9%
4-1-0	Home record	2-2-2
2-0-3	Away record	2-0-3
W1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Anderlecht · KVC Westerlo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3	Shots	14.0
6.3	Shots on target	5.4
4.7	Corners	3.0
2.67	Cards	1.87
12.7	Fouls	10.6
61	Possession %	51
1.67	xG	1.79
3 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.0	Shots	17.8
6.0	Shots on target	6.2
4.0	Corners	5.0
1.33	Cards	2.73
11.0	Fouls	10.6
39	Possession %	49
1.11	xG	2.11
3 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Anderlecht	Metric	KVC Westerlo
1.80	Goals scored	3.40 (better)
0.80	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.98	Expected goals (xG)	2.03 (better)
	Big chances
6.67	Shots on target	6.75 (better)
12.00	Total shots	16.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.67 (better)	Corners	3.25
59.7 (better)	Possession %	48.0
582 (better)	Passes	434
	Tackles
15.67	Fouls	13.25 (better)
0.50 (better)	Offsides	0.75
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Anderlecht wins: 2
Draws: 0
KVC Westerlo wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.33
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Charleroi	11	9	0	2	+13	27	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
3	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
4	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	11	4	2	5	-4	14	KVC Westerlo won 2 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5