Zulte Waregem v 
Club Brugge KV
Match statistics
| Zulte Waregem | Club Brugge KV | |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 14 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| — | Red cards | — |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 230 | Passes | 735 |
| 24% | Possession % | 76% |
| 1.60 | xG | 1.40 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Over 3.5
- 45%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Club Brugge KV 61%
- Likely score
- 1-2 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.20 – 2.26
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Club Brugge KV +0.25
Why this price?
Back Club Brugge KV +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.35 with Bet365 — Club Brugge KV starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 79% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 78%; we judge it at 78%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.28. The offered 1.35 implies only 74%, so the price is 5.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Zulte Waregem 1.20, Club Brugge KV 2.26.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Zulte Waregem | 18.9% | 5.30 | 8.25 Betano | 12.1% | +6.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 20.4% | 4.90 | 5.60 Dafabet | 17.9% | +2.5 |
| Match result | Club Brugge KV | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.59 Dafabet | 62.9% | -2.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 86.4% | 1.16 | 1.14 Betano | 87.7% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 13.6% | 7.34 | 7.00 BetVictor | 14.3% | -0.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | 1.44 Betano | 69.4% | -2.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 32.9% | 3.04 | 2.92 Betano | 34.2% | -1.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -1.1 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.82 Betano | 54.9% | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | 1.65 Betfair | 60.6% | +2.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.0% | 2.70 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | -3.0 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Club Brugge KV favoured against Zulte Waregem
Our model makes Zulte Waregem 19% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 20% and Club Brugge KV at 61%. The goal projection is 1.20 for Zulte Waregem against 2.26 for Club Brugge KV — a commanding edge to Club Brugge KV on expected output. A combined 3.46 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Club Brugge KV is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-2 10%
- 1-1 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 1-3 7%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Zulte Waregem | Club Brugge KV | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 3-2-5 | W-D-L | 9-0-1 |
| 1.10 | Pts / game | 2.70 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 2.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 0.80 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 30% | BTTS | 50% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2-0-3 | Home record | 5-0-0 |
| 1-2-2 | Away record | 4-0-1 |
| L5 | Streak | W6 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Zulte Waregem · Club Brugge KV
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 18.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 6.8 |
| 2.7 | Corners | 7.3 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 7.3 |
| 42 | Possession % | 64 |
| 1.06 | xG | 2.77 |
| 3 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 14.7 | Shots | 13.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.7 | Shots on target | 2.8 |
| 7.7 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.33 | Cards | 4.00 |
| 13.7 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 37 |
| 1.49 | xG | 1.62 |
| 3 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Zulte Waregem | Metric | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 3.00 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 0.91 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.49 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 6.75 (better) |
| 12.67 | Total shots | 18.50 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.33 (better) | Corners | 4.00 |
| 44.7 | Possession % | 57.3 (better) |
| 418 | Passes | 589 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.00 | Fouls | 8.50 (better) |
| 3.33 | Offsides | 1.75 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 0.67 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.00 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Zulte Waregem wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Club Brugge KV wins
- 3
- Goals / game
- 4.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 67%
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV2–42026-10-30
- Club Brugge KV v Zulte Waregem4–32026-01-24
- Zulte Waregem v Club Brugge KV0–12025-08-16
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +13 | 27 | Charleroi won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +22 | 26 | Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Gent | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | Gent won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Genk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | Genk won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 | Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Lommel United won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | KVC Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 | KVC Westerlo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KV Mechelen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Zulte Waregem | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Antwerp | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Antwerp won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | St. Truiden | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 8 | St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 7 | RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Cercle Brugge | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 | Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 | Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5 |