KV Mechelen v Genk

10th1–06th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
KV Mechelen		Genk
8	Shots	20
3	Shots on target	5
3	Corners	8
13	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	6
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	3
371	Passes	481
42%	Possession %	58%
0.31	xG	1.65

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Genk 48%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.32 – 1.78

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.6%	2.59	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	-4.9
Match result	KV Mechelen	27.9%	3.59	3.80 Betano	26.3%	+1.5
Match result	Draw	24.2%	4.13	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-2.4
Match result	Genk	47.9%	2.09	1.97 Dafabet	50.8%	-2.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.1%	1.22	1.23 Betano	81.3%	+0.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.9%	5.58	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-4.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.9%	1.67	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+1.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.1%	2.50	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-5.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.5%	2.66	2.75 Betano	36.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.5%	1.60	1.50 Betano	66.7%	-4.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.4%	1.63	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-0.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Genk favoured against KV Mechelen

Our model makes KV Mechelen 28% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Genk at 48%. The goal projection is 1.32 for KV Mechelen against 1.78 for Genk — a clear edge to Genk on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 0-2 7%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for KV Mechelen and Genk
KV Mechelen		Genk
10	Played	10
3-3-4	W-D-L	4-3-3
1.20	Pts / game	1.50
1.30	Goals for / game	1.80
1.80	Goals against / game	1.40
50%	Over 2.5	70%
40%	BTTS	50%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
50%	Failed to score	30%
2-1-2	Home record	4-1-0
1-2-2	Away record	0-2-3
W3	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. KV Mechelen · Genk

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	19.0
4.7	Shots on target	4.8
3.0	Corners	6.8
2.00	Cards	3.00
12.3	Fouls	12.3
46	Possession %	57
0.79	xG	2.18
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	12.8
4.7	Shots on target	3.3
6.0	Corners	4.3
5.67	Cards	3.00
16.3	Fouls	9.8
54	Possession %	43
1.38	xG	1.14
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
KV Mechelen	Metric	Genk
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.60	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.09	Expected goals (xG)	1.56 (better)
	Big chances
3.67	Shots on target	4.67 (better)
12.67	Total shots	16.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.00 (better)	Corners	4.00
39.0	Possession %	55.0 (better)
324	Passes	544 (better)
	Tackles
13.67	Fouls	9.67 (better)
2.67	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.33	Yellow cards	1.67 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

KV Mechelen wins: 2
Draws: 0
Genk wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

KV Mechelen v Genk1–02026-10-31
KV Mechelen v Genk2–32026-02-13
Genk v KV Mechelen0–12025-11-23

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5