Cercle Brugge v Antwerp

17th2–112th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cercle Brugge		Antwerp
10	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	4
8	Fouls	15
0	Yellow cards	5
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
315	Passes	473
40%	Possession %	60%
0.71	xG	2.36

Over 1.5: 84%
Over 2.5: 63%
Over 3.5: 41%
Both score: 65%

Model pick: Cercle Brugge 44%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.77 – 1.48

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cercle Brugge	44.3%	2.26	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-2.9
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.17	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-2.7
Match result	Antwerp	31.8%	3.15	3.45 Betano	29.0%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.0%	1.19	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+0.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	16.0%	6.26	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-4.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	63.1%	1.59	1.60 Betano	62.5%	+0.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	36.9%	2.71	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	40.9%	2.45	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	59.1%	1.69	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-3.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	64.6%	1.55	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-0.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	35.4%	2.82	2.55 Betano	39.2%	-3.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cercle Brugge favoured against Antwerp

Our model makes Cercle Brugge 44% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Antwerp at 32%. The goal projection is 1.77 for Cercle Brugge against 1.48 for Antwerp — a clear edge to Cercle Brugge on expected output. A combined 3.25 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-2 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-0 6%

This season

Season records for Cercle Brugge and Antwerp
Cercle Brugge		Antwerp
10	Played	10
1-3-6	W-D-L	3-1-6
0.60	Pts / game	1.00
1.30	Goals for / game	1.60
2.20	Goals against / game	2.20
70%	Over 2.5	80%
70%	BTTS	60%
0%	Clean sheets	20%
30%	Failed to score	20%
1-1-3	Home record	2-1-2
0-2-3	Away record	1-0-4
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cercle Brugge · Antwerp

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.3	Shots	10.5
4.7	Shots on target	3.0
3.3	Corners	3.3
2.33	Cards	4.75
11.0	Fouls	14.8
36	Possession %	49
0.87	xG	1.28
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	16.3
7.3	Shots on target	7.3
7.3	Corners	4.8
2.67	Cards	1.75
12.7	Fouls	12.3
64	Possession %	51
1.74	xG	2.11
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cercle Brugge	Metric	Antwerp
1.20 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
2.00	Goals conceded	2.00
1.21 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.14
	Big chances
4.25 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
10.50	Total shots	12.33 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.50 (better)	Corners	2.67
44.5	Possession %	45.0 (better)
386 (better)	Passes	293
	Tackles
14.25	Fouls	10.00 (better)
1.50	Offsides	0.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.50 (better)	Yellow cards	3.67
	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cercle Brugge wins: 1
Draws: 1
Antwerp wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Cercle Brugge v Antwerp2–12026-11-01
Cercle Brugge v Antwerp0–42026-01-31
Antwerp v Cercle Brugge1–12025-10-04

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5