Antwerp v Charleroi

12th3–04th

14:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Antwerp		Charleroi
7	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	7
5	Corners	5
17	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	3
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	4
360	Passes	473
44%	Possession %	56%
1.45	xG	1.97

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Charleroi 48%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.62

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Antwerp	26.6%	3.77	4.20 BetVictor	23.8%	+2.7
Match result	Draw	25.8%	3.87	4.10 Betano	24.4%	+1.4
Match result	Charleroi	47.6%	2.10	1.85 Betano	54.1%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.0%	1.30	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-3.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.0%	4.34	4.40 BetVictor	22.7%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.3%	1.91	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-5.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.7%	2.10	2.30 Betfair	43.5%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.1%	3.32	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-4.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.9%	1.43	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.4%	1.80	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.6%	2.24	2.20 William Hill	45.5%	-0.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Charleroi favoured against Antwerp

Our model makes Antwerp 27% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Charleroi at 48%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Antwerp against 1.62 for Charleroi — a clear edge to Charleroi on expected output. A combined 2.77 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Antwerp and Charleroi
Antwerp		Charleroi
10	Played	10
3-1-6	W-D-L	8-0-2
1.00	Pts / game	2.40
1.60	Goals for / game	2.10
2.20	Goals against / game	1.20
80%	Over 2.5	60%
60%	BTTS	50%
20%	Clean sheets	40%
20%	Failed to score	10%
2-1-2	Home record	4-0-1
1-0-4	Away record	4-0-1
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Antwerp · Charleroi

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	15.3
3.0	Shots on target	5.7
3.3	Corners	5.7
4.75	Cards	3.17
14.8	Fouls	11.7
49	Possession %	56
1.28	xG	1.92
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.3	Shots	11.0
7.3	Shots on target	3.3
4.8	Corners	5.3
1.75	Cards	1.83
12.3	Fouls	15.3
51	Possession %	44
2.11	xG	1.31
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Antwerp	Metric	Charleroi
0.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
3.00	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.00	Expected goals (xG)	1.83 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	5.20 (better)
13.80	Total shots	15.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	4.80 (better)
47.2	Possession %	55.8 (better)
389	Passes	488 (better)
	Tackles
14.60	Fouls	12.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Offsides	1.40
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Antwerp wins: 1
Draws: 1
Charleroi wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.20
Over 2.5: 40%
Both score: 40%

Antwerp v Charleroi3–02026-10-24
Antwerp v Charleroi0–12026-05-10
Charleroi v Antwerp2–12026-04-10
Antwerp v Charleroi0–22026-01-25
Charleroi v Antwerp1–12025-08-17

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
8	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Standard Liege won 0 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	10	3	1	6	-7	10	SK Beveren won 1 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5