Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1st3–2St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5LLLLL15th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Club Brugge KV
St. Truiden
12
Shots
8
5
Shots on target
3
4
Corners
4
4
Fouls
10
0
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
0
595
Passes
537
53%
Possession %
47%
2.67
xG
1.81
64%
19%
18%
1 · Club Brugge KVXSt. Truiden · 2
Over 1.5
90%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
53%
Both score
67%
Model pick
Club Brugge KV 64%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.54 – 1.30
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
St. Truiden
17.7%
5.66
8.25 Betano
12.1%
+5.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
90.0%
1.11
1.10 Bet365
90.9%
-0.9
Total goals
Under 1.5
10.0%
9.96
9.00 Bet365
11.1%
-1.1
Total goals
Over 2.5
73.8%
1.36
1.33 Bet365
75.2%
-1.4
Total goals
Under 2.5
26.2%
3.81
3.60 Bet365
27.8%
-1.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
53.5%
1.87
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
+0.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
46.5%
2.15
2.12 Betano
47.2%
-0.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.4%
1.48
1.53 Betfair
65.4%
+2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.6%
3.07
2.60 William Hill
38.5%
-5.9
Match result
Club Brugge KV
63.8%
1.57
1.35 Betano
74.1%
-10.3
Match result
Draw
18.5%
5.40
6.00 Betano
16.7%
+1.8
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Club Brugge KV favoured against St. Truiden
Our model makes Club Brugge KV 64% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 19% and St. Truiden at 18%. The goal projection is 2.54 for Club Brugge KV against 1.30 for St. Truiden — a commanding edge to Club Brugge KV on expected output. A combined 3.84 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Club Brugge KV is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Club Brugge KV
Metric
St. Truiden
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.80
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
3.56 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.66
—
Big chances *
—
7.75 (better)
Shots on target
4.40
21.50 (better)
Total shots
17.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00
Corners
6.80 (better)
57.5
Possession %
61.2 (better)
527
Passes
589 (better)
—
Tackles
—
8.50 (better)
Fouls
13.20
1.50
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.25
Yellow cards
1.40 (better)
—
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Club Brugge KV v 
St. Truiden