OH Leuven v Lommel United

14th2–27th

16:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
OH Leuven		Lommel United
22	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	5
16	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
—	Red cards	—
2	Offsides	1
381	Passes	514
43%	Possession %	57%
3.43	xG	0.97

Over 1.5: 69%
Over 2.5: 42%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 48%

Model pick: Lommel United 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.40

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	OH Leuven	25.4%	3.93	1.95 Dafabet	51.3%	-25.8
Match result	Draw	28.3%	3.54	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+2.0
Match result	Lommel United	46.3%	2.16	3.75 Betano	26.7%	+19.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.2%	1.44	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-14.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.8%	3.25	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+10.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.4%	2.36	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-19.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.6%	1.74	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+15.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	21.6%	4.63	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-17.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.4%	1.28	1.55 Betano	64.5%	+13.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.5%	2.10	1.57 William Hill	63.7%	-16.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	52.5%	1.91	2.40 BetVictor	41.7%	+10.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lommel United favoured against OH Leuven

Our model makes OH Leuven 25% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 28% and Lommel United at 46%. The goal projection is 0.97 for OH Leuven against 1.40 for Lommel United — a clear edge to Lommel United on expected output. A combined 2.38 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 42% and both teams to score at 48%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 10%; 0-2 9%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for OH Leuven and Lommel United
OH Leuven		Lommel United
10	Played	10
2-3-5	W-D-L	4-3-3
0.90	Pts / game	1.50
1.00	Goals for / game	1.30
1.70	Goals against / game	1.10
60%	Over 2.5	40%
60%	BTTS	30%
10%	Clean sheets	40%
30%	Failed to score	40%
1-2-2	Home record	2-1-2
1-1-3	Away record	2-2-1
W1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. OH Leuven · Lommel United

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
19.0	Shots	16.0
4.0	Shots on target	6.0
6.7	Corners	4.7
2.67	Cards	1.00
13.3	Fouls	9.0
39	Possession %	51
2.11	xG	1.27
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.0	Shots	15.3
4.3	Shots on target	4.3
9.7	Corners	8.0
2.00	Cards	2.33
11.7	Fouls	10.7
61	Possession %	49
2.02	xG	1.83
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
OH Leuven	Metric	Lommel United
0.80	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
0.91 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.82
	Big chances
2.60	Shots on target	3.25 (better)
11.20	Total shots	11.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.25 (better)
47.2 (better)	Possession %	47.0
418	Passes	436 (better)
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	6.75 (better)
0.80 (better)	Offsides	2.25
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

OH Leuven wins: 0
Draws: 1
Lommel United wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

OH Leuven v Lommel United2–22026-10-24

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
8	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Standard Liege won 0 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	10	3	1	6	-7	10	SK Beveren won 1 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5