Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5WWDWW2nd5–2Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5WLLLD17th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Union St. Gilloise
Cercle Brugge
23
Shots
5
12
Shots on target
2
13
Corners
1
9
Fouls
15
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
1
2
Offsides
1
510
Passes
263
66%
Possession %
34%
2.02
xG
1.23
72%
17%
1 · Union St. GilloiseXCercle Brugge · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
42%
Both score
53%
Model pick
Union St. Gilloise 72%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.45 – 0.85
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Union St. Gilloise
72.1%
1.39
1.37 Betano
73.0%
-0.9
Match result
Draw
17.2%
5.80
5.80 Dafabet
17.2%
-0.0
Match result
Cercle Brugge
10.7%
9.34
9.50 Betano
10.5%
+0.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.18
1.18 Betano
84.7%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
15.5%
6.45
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
64.0%
1.56
1.55 Betano
64.5%
-0.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
36.0%
2.78
2.70 Bet365
37.0%
-1.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
41.9%
2.38
2.32 Betano
43.1%
-1.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
58.1%
1.72
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
-1.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
52.7%
1.90
1.83 Betano
54.6%
-1.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
47.3%
2.12
2.05 William Hill
48.8%
-1.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Union St. Gilloise favoured against Cercle Brugge
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise 72% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 17% and Cercle Brugge at 11%. The goal projection is 2.45 for Union St. Gilloise against 0.85 for Cercle Brugge — a commanding edge to Union St. Gilloise on expected output. A combined 3.30 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Union St. Gilloise is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 28% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 11%
2-1 9%
3-0 9%
1-0 9%
1-1 8%
This season
Season records for Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Union St. Gilloise
Metric
Cercle Brugge
2.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
2.00
2.46 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.21
—
Big chances *
—
8.60 (better)
Shots on target
4.25
21.00 (better)
Total shots
10.50
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.40
Corners
6.50 (better)
52.0 (better)
Possession %
44.5
492 (better)
Passes
386
—
Tackles
—
11.80 (better)
Fouls
14.25
1.60
Offsides
1.50 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60
Yellow cards
1.50 (better)
0.25
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Union St. Gilloise v 
Cercle Brugge