RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem

16th3–011th

18:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
RAAL La Louvière		Zulte Waregem
15	Shots	15
8	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	3
21	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
4	Offsides	0
342	Passes	442
45%	Possession %	55%
1.56	xG	0.82

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Zulte Waregem 48%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.20 – 1.67

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	RAAL La Louvière	27.0%	3.70	3.25 Betano	30.8%	-3.8
Match result	Draw	25.3%	3.95	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-4.1
Match result	Zulte Waregem	47.7%	2.10	2.40 Betano	41.7%	+6.0
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.6%	1.27	1.32 Betano	75.8%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.4%	4.68	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.7%	1.83	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+4.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.3%	2.21	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-7.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.4%	3.09	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.6%	1.48	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-7.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.3%	1.75	1.75 Bet365	57.1%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.7%	2.34	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-3.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Zulte Waregem favoured against RAAL La Louvière

Our model makes RAAL La Louvière 27% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Zulte Waregem at 48%. The goal projection is 1.20 for RAAL La Louvière against 1.67 for Zulte Waregem — a clear edge to Zulte Waregem on expected output. A combined 2.87 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 9%; 0-2 8%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for RAAL La Louvière and Zulte Waregem
RAAL La Louvière		Zulte Waregem
10	Played	10
2-1-7	W-D-L	3-2-5
0.70	Pts / game	1.10
1.30	Goals for / game	1.20
2.30	Goals against / game	1.60
80%	Over 2.5	60%
50%	BTTS	30%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
30%	Failed to score	50%
2-1-2	Home record	2-0-3
0-0-5	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	L5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. RAAL La Louvière · Zulte Waregem

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	12.0
5.0	Shots on target	4.0
5.7	Corners	2.7
3.00	Cards	2.33
15.3	Fouls	11.0
41	Possession %	42
1.21	xG	1.06
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	14.7
6.3	Shots on target	7.7
3.3	Corners	7.7
3.00	Cards	2.33
11.7	Fouls	13.7
59	Possession %	58
2.63	xG	1.49
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
RAAL La Louvière	Metric	Zulte Waregem
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
2.00	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.98
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.50 (better)
12.50	Total shots	12.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	4.75 (better)
38.5	Possession %	46.0 (better)
349	Passes	414 (better)
	Tackles
12.50	Fouls	11.75 (better)
1.75 (better)	Offsides	2.75
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

RAAL La Louvière wins: 1
Draws: 2
Zulte Waregem wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.60
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 20%

RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem3–02026-10-24
Zulte Waregem v RAAL La Louvière4–02026-04-26
RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem0–22026-04-19
Zulte Waregem v RAAL La Louvière2–22025-12-13
RAAL La Louvière v Zulte Waregem0–02025-10-04

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	+2	15	Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5
8	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
9	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	11	3	1	7	-10	10	SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5