KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5LDWWW8th4–4SK Beveren won 1 of the last 5LDLLW13th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
KVC Westerlo
SK Beveren
15
Shots
16
6
Shots on target
7
3
Corners
7
3
Fouls
12
0
Yellow cards
4
1
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
3
452
Passes
453
50%
Possession %
50%
2.41
xG
2.08
57%
22%
22%
1 · KVC WesterloXSK Beveren · 2
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
43%
Both score
63%
Model pick
KVC Westerlo 57%
Likely score
2-1 10%
Expected goals
2.11 – 1.25
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
KVC Westerlo
56.5%
1.77
2.10 William Hill
47.6%
+8.9
Match result
Draw
21.7%
4.60
4.05 Betano
24.7%
-3.0
Match result
SK Beveren
21.8%
4.60
4.00 Betano
25.0%
-3.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
85.3%
1.17
1.17 Betano
85.5%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.7%
6.80
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
-2.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
65.2%
1.53
1.53 Betano
65.4%
-0.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
34.8%
2.88
2.65 Betano
37.7%
-3.0
Total goals
Over 3.5
43.3%
2.31
2.27 Betano
44.1%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
56.7%
1.76
1.70 Betano
58.8%
-2.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.2%
1.58
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-3.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.8%
2.72
2.75 William Hill
36.4%
+0.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
KVC Westerlo favoured against SK Beveren
Our model makes KVC Westerlo 57% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 22% and SK Beveren at 22%. The goal projection is 2.11 for KVC Westerlo against 1.25 for SK Beveren — a substantial edge to KVC Westerlo on expected output. A combined 3.36 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
KVC Westerlo
Metric
SK Beveren
3.40 (better)
Goals scored
1.80
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
0.80
2.03 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.38
—
Big chances *
—
6.75 (better)
Shots on target
3.75
16.00 (better)
Total shots
10.00
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.25
Corners
6.00 (better)
48.0
Possession %
52.0 (better)
434
Passes
476 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.25
Fouls
9.00 (better)
0.75 (better)
Offsides
2.75
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.67 (better)
Yellow cards
1.75
0.00 (better)
Red cards
1.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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KVC Westerlo v 
SK Beveren