Genk v 
Standard Liege
Match statistics
| Genk | Standard Liege | |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 579 | Passes | 275 |
| 68% | Possession % | 32% |
| 3.32 | xG | 1.48 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Genk 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.60 – 1.20
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Standard Liege 0
Why this price?
Back Standard Liege 0 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — Standard Liege to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 38% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 28%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.11. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 10.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.10 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Genk 1.60, Standard Liege 1.20.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Genk | 46.1% | 2.17 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | -10.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.9% | 3.86 | 4.05 Betano | 24.7% | +1.2 |
| Match result | Standard Liege | 28.0% | 3.57 | 4.65 Betano | 21.5% | +6.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | 1.21 Betano | 82.6% | -5.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 22.7% | 4.42 | 5.00 Bet365 | 20.0% | +2.7 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | -7.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 47.1% | 2.12 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | +5.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 30.6% | 3.26 | 2.57 Betano | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | 1.60 Betano | 62.5% | +6.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -5.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 43.8% | 2.28 | 2.50 Betfair | 40.0% | +3.8 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Genk favoured against Standard Liege
Our model makes Genk 46% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 26% and Standard Liege at 28%. The goal projection is 1.60 for Genk against 1.20 for Standard Liege — a clear edge to Genk on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 7%
This season
| Genk | Standard Liege | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 11 |
| 4-3-3 | W-D-L | 4-3-4 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 1.36 |
| 1.80 | Goals for / game | 1.64 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 1.45 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 64% |
| 50% | BTTS | 64% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 4-1-0 | Home record | 3-2-1 |
| 0-2-3 | Away record | 1-1-3 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Genk · Standard Liege
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 19.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 9.5 |
| 57 | Possession % | 50 |
| 2.18 | xG | 1.63 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 12.8 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 43 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.14 | xG | 1.77 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Genk | Metric | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| 1.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 1.56 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.28 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.67 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 16.33 (better) | Total shots | 14.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.00 | Corners | 6.33 (better) |
| 55.0 (better) | Possession % | 52.3 |
| 544 (better) | Passes | 500 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.67 | Fouls | 9.67 |
| 1.67 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.67 | Yellow cards | 0.50 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Genk wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Standard Liege wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.20
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Both score
- 60%
- Genk v Standard Liege2–12026-10-25
- Standard Liege v Genk0–02026-05-16
- Genk v Standard Liege1–12026-04-25
- Genk v Standard Liege0–32026-02-22
- Standard Liege v Genk2–12025-08-10
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +22 | 26 | Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Gent | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | Gent won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Charleroi | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | +9 | 24 | Charleroi won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Genk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | Genk won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 | Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Lommel United won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | KVC Westerlo | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 | KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KV Mechelen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Zulte Waregem | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Antwerp | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Antwerp won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | St. Truiden | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 8 | St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 7 | RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Cercle Brugge | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 | Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 | Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5 |