Gent v Anderlecht

3rd4–05th

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Gent		Anderlecht
8	Shots	19
7	Shots on target	5
2	Corners	5
9	Fouls	16
2	Yellow cards	4
—	Red cards	—
4	Offsides	4
328	Passes	588
36%	Possession %	64%
1.89	xG	1.55

Over 1.5: 68%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Gent 41%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.04

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Gent	40.9%	2.45	2.52 Betano	39.7%	+1.2
Match result	Draw	29.4%	3.40	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	-0.9
Match result	Anderlecht	29.7%	3.37	2.92 Betano	34.2%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.6%	1.48	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-6.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.4%	3.09	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+3.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.5%	2.47	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-8.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	59.5%	1.68	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	20.1%	4.97	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-7.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	79.9%	1.25	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+3.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.0%	2.13	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-8.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.0%	1.89	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Gent favoured against Anderlecht

Our model makes Gent 41% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 29% and Anderlecht at 30%. The goal projection is 1.26 for Gent against 1.04 for Anderlecht — a slight edge to Gent on expected output. A combined 2.30 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for Gent and Anderlecht
Gent		Anderlecht
10	Played	10
8-1-1	W-D-L	6-1-3
2.50	Pts / game	1.90
1.90	Goals for / game	1.30
0.60	Goals against / game	1.10
50%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	30%
50%	Clean sheets	40%
10%	Failed to score	40%
5-0-0	Home record	4-1-0
3-1-1	Away record	2-0-3
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Gent · Anderlecht

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.7	Shots	17.3
6.0	Shots on target	6.3
3.7	Corners	4.7
2.00	Cards	2.67
9.7	Fouls	12.7
43	Possession %	61
1.58	xG	1.67
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.0	Shots	11.0
5.0	Shots on target	6.0
3.7	Corners	4.0
2.33	Cards	1.33
12.0	Fouls	11.0
57	Possession %	39
1.21	xG	1.11
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Gent	Metric	Anderlecht
1.80	Goals scored	1.80
0.40 (better)	Goals conceded	0.80
1.43	Expected goals (xG)	1.49 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	6.25 (better)
14.00 (better)	Total shots	12.75
	Touches in opp. box
5.80 (better)	Corners	5.25
47.4	Possession %	59.8 (better)
460	Passes	567 (better)
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	12.00
1.80 (better)	Offsides	2.33
	Throw-ins
1.80	Yellow cards	1.50 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Gent wins: 2
Draws: 1
Anderlecht wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.40
Over 2.5: 60%
Both score: 60%

Gent v Anderlecht4–02026-10-25
Gent v Anderlecht1–12026-05-10
Anderlecht v Gent3–12026-04-12
Gent v Anderlecht4–22026-01-18
Anderlecht v Gent1–02025-09-23

Belgian Pro League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Club Brugge KV	10	9	0	1	+18	27	Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5
2	Union St. Gilloise	10	8	2	0	+22	26	Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5
3	Gent	10	8	1	1	+13	25	Gent won 3 of the last 5
4	Charleroi	10	8	0	2	+9	24	Charleroi won 4 of the last 5
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	+2	19	Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5
6	Genk	10	4	3	3	+4	15	Genk won 2 of the last 5
7	Lommel United	10	4	3	3	+2	15	Lommel United won 2 of the last 5
8	KVC Westerlo	10	4	2	4	0	14	KVC Westerlo won 3 of the last 5
9	Standard Liege	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Standard Liege won 0 of the last 5
10	KV Mechelen	10	3	3	4	-5	12	KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5
11	Zulte Waregem	10	3	2	5	-4	11	Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5
12	Antwerp	10	3	1	6	-6	10	Antwerp won 1 of the last 5
13	SK Beveren	10	3	1	6	-7	10	SK Beveren won 1 of the last 5
14	OH Leuven	10	2	3	5	-7	9	OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5
15	St. Truiden	10	2	2	6	-3	8	St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5
16	RAAL La Louvière	10	2	1	7	-10	7	RAAL La Louvière won 2 of the last 5
17	Cercle Brugge	10	1	3	6	-9	6	Cercle Brugge won 1 of the last 5
18	Kortrijk	10	1	1	8	-18	4	Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5