Union St. Gilloise v 
Genk
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Union St. Gilloise 64%
- Likely score
- 2-0 11%
- Expected goals
- 2.07 – 0.90
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Union St. Gilloise favoured against Genk
Our model makes Union St. Gilloise 64% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 21% and Genk at 15%. The goal projection is 2.07 for Union St. Gilloise against 0.90 for Genk — a commanding edge to Union St. Gilloise on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Union St. Gilloise is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-0 11%
- 1-0 10%
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 3-0 8%
This season
| Union St. Gilloise | Genk | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 8-2-0 | W-D-L | 4-3-3 |
| 2.60 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 2.90 | Goals for / game | 1.80 |
| 0.70 | Goals against / game | 1.40 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 70% |
| 50% | BTTS | 50% |
| 50% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 30% |
| 3-2-0 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 5-0-0 | Away record | 0-2-3 |
| W2 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Union St. Gilloise · Genk
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 18.0 | Shots | 19.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 8.0 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 57 | Possession % | 57 |
| 1.83 | xG | 2.18 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 9.0 | Shots | 12.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.3 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 3.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 13.8 | Fouls | 9.8 |
| 44 | Possession % | 43 |
| 0.86 | xG | 1.14 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Union St. Gilloise | Metric | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.60 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.80 |
| 1.95 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.27 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 8.50 (better) | Shots on target | 5.67 |
| 21.25 (better) | Total shots | 19.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.50 | Corners | 8.33 (better) |
| 60.8 | Possession % | 63.3 (better) |
| 504 | Passes | 568 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.25 (better) | Fouls | 12.67 |
| 0.75 (better) | Offsides | 3.33 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.67 |
| 0.25 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Union St. Gilloise wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Genk wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Union St. Gilloise v Genk2–12026-03-07
- Genk v Union St. Gilloise1–22025-09-21
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +13 | 27 | Charleroi won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +22 | 26 | Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Gent | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | Gent won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Genk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | Genk won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 | Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Lommel United won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | KVC Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 | KVC Westerlo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KV Mechelen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Zulte Waregem | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Antwerp | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Antwerp won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 | Cercle Brugge won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | St. Truiden | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 8 | St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louvière | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 7 | RAAL La Louvière won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 | Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5 |