St. Truiden v 
Zulte Waregem
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- St. Truiden 53%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.91 – 1.23
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
St. Truiden favoured against Zulte Waregem
Our model makes St. Truiden 53% to win this Belgian Pro League fixture, with the draw at 23% and Zulte Waregem at 24%. The goal projection is 1.91 for St. Truiden against 1.23 for Zulte Waregem — a substantial edge to St. Truiden on expected output. A combined 3.14 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-0 8%
- 1-2 6%
This season
| St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 2-2-6 | W-D-L | 3-2-5 |
| 0.80 | Pts / game | 1.10 |
| 1.80 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 2.10 | Goals against / game | 1.60 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 30% |
| 10% | Clean sheets | 30% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 1-1-3 | Home record | 2-0-3 |
| 1-1-3 | Away record | 1-2-2 |
| L5 | Streak | L5 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. St. Truiden · Zulte Waregem
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.0 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 8.3 | Corners | 2.7 |
| 3.25 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 57 | Possession % | 42 |
| 2.26 | xG | 1.06 |
| 4 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 15.0 | Shots | 14.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 7.7 |
| 4.5 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 9.8 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 43 | Possession % | 58 |
| 1.72 | xG | 1.49 |
| 4 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| St. Truiden | Metric | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.79 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.03 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.50 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 15.75 (better) | Total shots | 11.67 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.75 (better) | Corners | 2.67 |
| 56.8 (better) | Possession % | 42.0 |
| 560 (better) | Passes | 376 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.50 | Fouls | 11.00 (better) |
| 0.75 | Offsides | 0.33 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 1.33 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- St. Truiden wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Zulte Waregem wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- St. Truiden v Zulte Waregem3–22026-02-15
- Zulte Waregem v St. Truiden0–22025-08-23
Belgian Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +18 | 27 | Club Brugge KV won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +13 | 27 | Charleroi won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Union St. Gilloise | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | +22 | 26 | Union St. Gilloise won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Gent | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 25 | Gent won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Anderlecht won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Genk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | Genk won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Standard Liege | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 15 | Standard Liege won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Lommel United | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 15 | Lommel United won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | KVC Westerlo | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 | KVC Westerlo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KV Mechelen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | KV Mechelen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Zulte Waregem | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 | Zulte Waregem won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Antwerp | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 10 | Antwerp won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | SK Beveren | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 | SK Beveren won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | OH Leuven | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 | OH Leuven won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Cercle Brugge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 9 | Cercle Brugge won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | St. Truiden | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 8 | St. Truiden won 0 of the last 5 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louvière | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 7 | RAAL La Louvière won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 | Kortrijk won 1 of the last 5 |