China
Chinese Super League predictions
Every Chinese Super League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Chinese Super League page.
8 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is SHANGHAI SIPG, 61% against Shenyang Urban at home; the most evenly balanced game is Dalian Zhixing v Tianjin Teda (Dalian Zhixing 40%, draw 28%, Tianjin Teda 32%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Yunnan Yukun v Wuhan Three Towns, at 4.22.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
Chinese Super League8Most likely prediction
Match by match
Hangzhou Greentown v Henan JianyeSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Hangzhou Greentown 45%, the draw 22% and Henan Jianye 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 74%. Hangzhou Greentown are 9th on 39 points from 29; Henan Jianye are 12th on 34 points from 29. Hangzhou Greentown have won two of their last five; Henan Jianye are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Beijing Guoan v Chongqing Tongliang LongSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Beijing Guoan 57%, the draw 24% and Chongqing Tongliang Long 19%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.73 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Beijing Guoan to win at 57%. Beijing Guoan are 1st on 52 points from 29; Chongqing Tongliang Long are 11th on 36 points from 29. Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Chongqing Tongliang Long have won one of their last five.
SHANGHAI SIPG v Shenyang UrbanSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes SHANGHAI SIPG 61%, the draw 20% and Shenyang Urban 19%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is SHANGHAI SIPG to win at 61%. SHANGHAI SIPG are 5th on 47 points from 29; Shenyang Urban are 14th on 29 points from 29. SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Shenyang Urban have won one of their last five.
Shandong Luneng v Chengdu Better CitySun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Shandong Luneng 47%, the draw 23% and Chengdu Better City 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. Shandong Luneng are 3rd on 50 points from 29; Chengdu Better City are 2nd on 52 points from 29. Shandong Luneng are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Chengdu Better City have won one of their last five. Chengdu Better City have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Qingdao Jonoon v Sichuan JiuniuSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Qingdao Jonoon 33%, the draw 25% and Sichuan Jiuniu 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.11 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 82%. Qingdao Jonoon are 16th on 21 points from 29; Sichuan Jiuniu are 13th on 32 points from 29. Qingdao Jonoon have lost all of their last five; Sichuan Jiuniu have won one of their last five. Sichuan Jiuniu have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Dalian Zhixing v Tianjin TedaSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Dalian Zhixing 40%, the draw 28% and Tianjin Teda 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Dalian Zhixing to win at 40%. Dalian Zhixing are 4th on 49 points from 29; Tianjin Teda are 7th on 41 points from 29. Dalian Zhixing are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Tianjin Teda have won four of their last five. Tianjin Teda have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Yunnan Yukun v Wuhan Three TownsSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Yunnan Yukun 53%, the draw 20% and Wuhan Three Towns 28%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 4.22 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 61%. Yunnan Yukun are 8th on 40 points from 29; Wuhan Three Towns are 15th on 27 points from 29. Yunnan Yukun have won one of their last five; Wuhan Three Towns are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Shanghai Shenhua v Qingdao Youth IslandSun 8 Nov, 07:30
Our model makes Shanghai Shenhua 53%, the draw 24% and Qingdao Youth Island 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.04 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Shanghai Shenhua to win at 53%. Shanghai Shenhua are 6th on 47 points from 29; Qingdao Youth Island are 10th on 39 points from 29. Shanghai Shenhua have won three of their last five; Qingdao Youth Island are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
The numbers this season
Chinese Super League has averaged 3.15 goals a game over 232 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 58% of them and both sides scoring in 63%. Home sides have won 44% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 30%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Chinese Super League predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Chinese Super League predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Chinese Super League?
- 44% of matches this season, over 232 played, with 26% drawn and 30% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.15 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 58%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.