Qingdao Jonoon v 
Sichuan Jiuniu
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Sichuan Jiuniu 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.45 – 1.66
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sichuan Jiuniu favoured against Qingdao Jonoon
Our model makes Qingdao Jonoon 33% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Sichuan Jiuniu at 42%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.66 for Sichuan Jiuniu — a slight edge to Sichuan Jiuniu on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 8%
- 0-1 7%
- 2-2 6%
This season
| Qingdao Jonoon | Sichuan Jiuniu | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Played | 29 |
| 6-3-20 | W-D-L | 9-5-15 |
| 0.72 | Pts / game | 1.10 |
| 1.17 | Goals for / game | 1.34 |
| 2.14 | Goals against / game | 1.76 |
| 62% | Over 2.5 | 55% |
| 62% | BTTS | 59% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 14% |
| 34% | Failed to score | 28% |
| 5-2-7 | Home record | 7-3-5 |
| 1-1-13 | Away record | 2-2-10 |
| L12 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Qingdao Jonoon · Sichuan Jiuniu
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.7 | Shots | 11.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.7 | Shots on target | 2.7 |
| 4.7 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 12.3 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 45 | Possession % | 44 |
| 0.43 | xG | 0.85 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 16.7 | Shots | 18.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.33 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 14.7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 56 |
| 2.53 | xG | 2.36 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Qingdao Jonoon | Metric | Sichuan Jiuniu |
|---|---|---|
| 0.40 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 3.20 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.34 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 13.00 | Total shots | 15.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.20 |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 47.4 (better) |
| 335 | Passes | 377 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.80 (better) | Fouls | 13.20 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 | Yellow cards | 2.25 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards | 0.50 (better) |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Qingdao Jonoon wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Sichuan Jiuniu wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 4.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Sichuan Jiuniu v Qingdao Jonoon3–22026-05-30
- Sichuan Jiuniu v Qingdao Jonoon4–02025-07-19
Chinese Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | +21 | 52 | Beijing Guoan won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | +16 | 52 | Chengdu Better City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | +10 | 50 | Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | +3 | 49 | Dalian Zhixing won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | +14 | 47 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +13 | 47 | Shanghai Shenhua won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | +4 | 41 | Tianjin Teda won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 | Yunnan Yukun won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 | Hangzhou Greentown won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 | Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 | Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 34 | Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 | Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 | Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 27 | Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 21 | Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5 |