Beijing Guoan v 
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- Over 1.5
- 76%
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- Over 3.5
- 29%
- Both score
- 51%
- Model pick
- Beijing Guoan 57%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.79 – 0.95
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Beijing Guoan favoured against Chongqing Tongliang Long
Our model makes Beijing Guoan 57% to win this Chinese Super League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Chongqing Tongliang Long at 19%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Beijing Guoan against 0.95 for Chongqing Tongliang Long — a substantial edge to Beijing Guoan on expected output. A combined 2.73 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 51% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 11%
- 2-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Beijing Guoan | Chongqing Tongliang Long | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Played | 29 |
| 14-10-5 | W-D-L | 8-12-9 |
| 1.79 | Pts / game | 1.24 |
| 1.97 | Goals for / game | 1.07 |
| 1.24 | Goals against / game | 1.17 |
| 62% | Over 2.5 | 31% |
| 62% | BTTS | 55% |
| 38% | Clean sheets | 31% |
| 7% | Failed to score | 24% |
| 7-4-3 | Home record | 5-6-4 |
| 7-6-2 | Away record | 3-6-5 |
| W3 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Beijing Guoan · Chongqing Tongliang Long
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.0 | Shots | 9.7 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 4.3 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 0.67 |
| 15.7 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 66 | Possession % | 45 |
| — | xG | 1.29 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 12.0 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 12.7 |
| 34 | Possession % | 55 |
| — | xG | 2.16 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Beijing Guoan | Metric | Chongqing Tongliang Long |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 1.86 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.36 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.25 |
| 12.40 (better) | Total shots | 10.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 6.75 (better) |
| 59.4 (better) | Possession % | 49.3 |
| 550 (better) | Passes | 403 |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.60 | Fouls | 11.00 (better) |
| 2.75 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 0.75 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Beijing Guoan wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Chongqing Tongliang Long wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 5.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Chongqing Tongliang Long v Beijing Guoan2–32026-05-30
Chinese Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | +21 | 52 | Beijing Guoan won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | +16 | 52 | Chengdu Better City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | +10 | 50 | Shandong Luneng won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | +3 | 49 | Dalian Zhixing won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | +14 | 47 | SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | +13 | 47 | Shanghai Shenhua won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | +4 | 41 | Tianjin Teda won 4 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 | Yunnan Yukun won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 39 | Hangzhou Greentown won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 | Qingdao Youth Island won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 | Chongqing Tongliang Long won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 34 | Henan Jianye won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 | Sichuan Jiuniu won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 | Shenyang Urban won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 27 | Wuhan Three Towns won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 21 | Qingdao Jonoon won 0 of the last 5 |