Czech Republic
Chance Liga predictions
Every Chance Liga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Chance Liga page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Slavia Praha, 75% against Artis at home; the most evenly balanced game is FK Jablonec v Mlada Boleslav (FK Jablonec 34%, draw 28%, Mlada Boleslav 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Slavia Praha v Artis, at 3.56.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
Chance Liga4Most likely prediction
Match by match
Teplice v PardubiceSun 8 Nov, 12:00
Our model makes Teplice 43%, the draw 27% and Pardubice 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Teplice to win at 43%. Teplice are 6th on 21 points from 13; Pardubice are 12th on 14 points from 13. Teplice have won two of their last five; Pardubice have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
FK Jablonec v Mlada BoleslavSun 8 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes FK Jablonec 34%, the draw 28% and Mlada Boleslav 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Mlada Boleslav to win at 38%. FK Jablonec are 8th on 20 points from 13; Mlada Boleslav are 3rd on 24 points from 13. FK Jablonec have won two of their last five; Mlada Boleslav have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between FK Jablonec wins, draws and Mlada Boleslav wins.
Slavia Praha v ArtisSun 8 Nov, 14:00
Our model makes Slavia Praha 75%, the draw 15% and Artis 10%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Slavia Praha to win at 75%. Slavia Praha are 1st on 31 points from 13; Artis are 14th on 10 points from 13. Slavia Praha are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Artis have won one of their last five.
Plzen v Sparta PrahaSun 8 Nov, 17:00
Our model makes Plzen 30%, the draw 24% and Sparta Praha 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Plzen are 10th on 19 points from 13; Sparta Praha are 5th on 23 points from 13. Plzen have won three of their last five; Sparta Praha are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.
The numbers this season
Chance Liga has averaged 2.74 goals a game over 106 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 50%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Chance Liga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Chance Liga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Chance Liga?
- 42% of matches this season, over 106 played, with 23% drawn and 36% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.74 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 56%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.