Plzen v 
Sparta Praha
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Sparta Praha 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.39 – 1.76
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sparta Praha favoured against Plzen
Our model makes Plzen 30% to win this Chance Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Sparta Praha at 46%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Plzen against 1.76 for Sparta Praha — a clear edge to Sparta Praha on expected output. A combined 3.15 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 7%
- 0-1 7%
- 0-2 7%
This season
| Plzen | Sparta Praha | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 5-4-4 | W-D-L | 7-2-4 |
| 1.46 | Pts / game | 1.77 |
| 2.15 | Goals for / game | 1.92 |
| 1.62 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 77% | Over 2.5 | 62% |
| 69% | BTTS | 38% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 46% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 2-2-3 | Home record | 5-0-1 |
| 3-2-1 | Away record | 2-2-3 |
| W1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Plzen · Sparta Praha
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.8 | Shots | 19.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 2.20 |
| 8.8 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 44 | Possession % | 57 |
| 2.04 | xG | 2.19 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 17.6 | Shots | 10.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 9.0 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 1.93 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 11.6 |
| 56 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.63 | xG | 0.86 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Plzen | Metric | Sparta Praha |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.72 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 18.00 (better) | Total shots | 17.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.75 | Corners | 4.00 (better) |
| 52.8 (better) | Possession % | 52.0 |
| 405 | Passes | 418 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.50 (better) | Fouls | 14.50 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.25 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Plzen wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Sparta Praha wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 33%
- Sparta Praha v Plzen0–02026-05-12
- Plzen v Sparta Praha0–02026-02-22
- Sparta Praha v Plzen2–12025-09-20
Chance Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | +25 | 31 | Slavia Praha won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 26 | Slovan Liberec won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | +7 | 24 | Mlada Boleslav won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +2 | 24 | Sigma Olomouc won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Sparta Praha | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +12 | 23 | Sparta Praha won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Teplice | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 21 | Teplice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Bohemians 1905 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 20 | Bohemians 1905 won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | FK Jablonec | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 20 | FK Jablonec won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Zbrojovka Brno | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 20 | Zbrojovka Brno won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Plzen | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +7 | 19 | Plzen won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Hradec Králové | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 18 | Hradec Králové won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Pardubice | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 14 | Pardubice won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Baník Ostrava | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 11 | Baník Ostrava won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Artis | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -10 | 10 | Artis won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Slovácko | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -13 | 10 | Slovácko won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Zlin | 14 | 0 | 3 | 11 | -16 | 3 | Zlin won 0 of the last 5 |