Denmark
Danish Superliga predictions
Every Danish Superliga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Danish Superliga page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is FC Midtjylland, 68% against Sonderjyske at home; the most evenly balanced game is Aarhus v AC Horsens (Aarhus 45%, draw 23%, AC Horsens 32%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is FC Midtjylland v Sonderjyske, at 3.50.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
Danish Superliga4Most likely prediction
Match by match
FC Copenhagen v BrondbySun 8 Nov, 11:00
Our model makes FC Copenhagen 59%, the draw 21% and Brondby 20%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is FC Copenhagen to win at 59%. FC Copenhagen are 2nd on 29 points from 13; Brondby are 4th on 22 points from 13. FC Copenhagen have won two of their last five; Brondby have won three of their last five. FC Copenhagen have won two of the sides' last four meetings.
Aarhus v AC HorsensSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes Aarhus 45%, the draw 23% and AC Horsens 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. Aarhus are 9th on 12 points from 13; AC Horsens are 7th on 16 points from 13. Aarhus have won two of their last five; AC Horsens have won one of their last five.
Randers FC v FC NordsjaellandSun 8 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Randers FC 20%, the draw 25% and FC Nordsjaelland 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is FC Nordsjaelland to win at 55%. Randers FC are 10th on 11 points from 13; FC Nordsjaelland are 5th on 20 points from 13. Randers FC are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); FC Nordsjaelland are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). FC Nordsjaelland have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
FC Midtjylland v SonderjyskeSun 8 Nov, 17:00
Our model makes FC Midtjylland 68%, the draw 18% and Sonderjyske 14%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is FC Midtjylland to win at 68%. FC Midtjylland are 1st on 31 points from 13; Sonderjyske are 12th on 8 points from 13. FC Midtjylland are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Sonderjyske have won two of their last five. FC Midtjylland have won three of the sides' last five meetings.
The numbers this season
Danish Superliga has averaged 3.04 goals a game over 79 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 61%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 25%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Danish Superliga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Danish Superliga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Danish Superliga?
- 47% of matches this season, over 79 played, with 28% drawn and 25% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.04 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 56%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.