FA Cup · Review

FA Cup 1/128-finals review: results, xG and what the model said

Every FA Cup result from 1/128-finals against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 10 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

FA Cup, 1/128-finals (6–9 November 2026), is complete: 40 matches, 136 goals (3.40 a game), 23 home wins, seven draws and ten away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 24 of the 40 and both teams scored in 18.

The result the model rated least likely was Leicester's win in Oxford City v Leicester (2–4), which it had at 17%; the one it rated most likely was Barnet's win in Barnet v Tranmere (3–0), at 65%.

Match by match

Bristol Rovers 2–0 Cambridge UnitedFri 6 Nov, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had Bristol Rovers 28%, the draw 24% and Cambridge United 48%, with Cambridge United favoured; it put Bristol Rovers winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Cambridge United to win at 48%, did not come in. Pick published: Bristol Rovers -0.5 at 3.00 — won.

Oxford City 2–4 LeicesterFri 6 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Oxford City 64%, the draw 19% and Leicester 17%, with Oxford City favoured; it put Leicester winning at 17%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, Oxford City to win at 64%, did not come in.

Accrington ST 0–2 WycombeSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Accrington ST 40%, the draw 23% and Wycombe 38%, with Accrington ST favoured; it put Wycombe winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, did not come in.

AFC Hornchurch 1–1 BlackpoolSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had AFC Hornchurch 60%, the draw 20% and Blackpool 20%, with AFC Hornchurch favoured; it put the draw at 20%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, AFC Hornchurch to win at 60%, did not come in.

Barnet 3–0 TranmereSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Barnet 65%, the draw 18% and Tranmere 17%, so Barnet winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, Barnet to win at 65%, came in.

Barnsley 7–2 Aldershot TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Barnsley 24%, the draw 21% and Aldershot Town 55%, with Aldershot Town favoured; it put Barnsley winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, Aldershot Town to win at 55%, did not come in.

Boreham Wood 0–3 WiganSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Boreham Wood 55%, the draw 21% and Wigan 24%, with Boreham Wood favoured; it put Wigan winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, did not come in.

Bradford 7–0 MarineSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Bradford 34%, the draw 30% and Marine 36%, with Marine favoured; it put Bradford winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, did not come in.

Bromley 0–2 RotherhamSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Bromley 49%, the draw 22% and Rotherham 28%, with Bromley favoured; it put Rotherham winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Burton Albion 4–0 AFC Rushden & DiamondsSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Burton Albion 28%, the draw 24% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds 49%, with AFC Rushden & Diamonds favoured; it put Burton Albion winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, AFC Rushden & Diamonds to win at 49%, did not come in.

Carlisle 1–0 Salford CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Carlisle 36%, the draw 23% and Salford City 40%, with Salford City favoured; it put Carlisle winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Cheltenham 2–0 FC Halifax TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Cheltenham 28%, the draw 20% and FC Halifax Town 52%, with FC Halifax Town favoured; it put Cheltenham winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 63%, did not come in.

Chesterfield 4–3 Yeovil TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Chesterfield 36%, the draw 20% and Yeovil Town 43%, with Yeovil Town favoured; it put Chesterfield winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 2-2. The headline call, both teams to score at 78%, came in.

Colchester 1–0 Worcester CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Colchester 24%, the draw 27% and Worcester City 50%, with Worcester City favoured; it put Colchester winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Worcester City to win at 50%, did not come in.

Crewe 2–1 AFC WimbledonSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Crewe 53%, the draw 24% and AFC Wimbledon 23%, so Crewe winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Crewe to win at 53%, came in.

Dover 2–0 WealdstoneSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Dover 42%, the draw 22% and Wealdstone 36%, so Dover winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 74%, did not come in.

Eastleigh 1–2 ShrewsburySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Eastleigh 58%, the draw 21% and Shrewsbury 21%, with Eastleigh favoured; it put Shrewsbury winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, Eastleigh to win at 58%, did not come in.

Fleetwood Town 1–1 RochdaleSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Fleetwood Town 54%, the draw 23% and Rochdale 23%, with Fleetwood Town favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, Fleetwood Town to win at 54%, did not come in.

Gillingham 0–1 BarrowSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Gillingham 38%, the draw 23% and Barrow 38%, with Gillingham favoured; it put Barrow winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, did not come in.

Guiseley AFC 1–0 Sutton UtdSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Guiseley AFC 54%, the draw 23% and Sutton Utd 23%, so Guiseley AFC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Guiseley AFC to win at 54%, came in.

Harrogate Town 1–4 AFC FyldeSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Harrogate Town 20%, the draw 21% and AFC Fylde 59%, so AFC Fylde winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, AFC Fylde to win at 59%, came in.

Huddersfield 1–2 Exeter CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Huddersfield 55%, the draw 24% and Exeter City 21%, with Huddersfield favoured; it put Exeter City winning at 21%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Huddersfield to win at 55%, did not come in.

Kidderminster Harriers 3–0 DoncasterSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Kidderminster Harriers 46%, the draw 25% and Doncaster 29%, so Kidderminster Harriers winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, did not come in.

Leyton Orient 5–1 Harborough TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Leyton Orient 24%, the draw 24% and Harborough Town 52%, with Harborough Town favoured; it put Leyton Orient winning at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Harborough Town to win at 52%, did not come in.

Luton 2–0 Forest GreenSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Luton 34%, the draw 23% and Forest Green 43%, with Forest Green favoured; it put Luton winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, did not come in.

Mansfield Town 3–0 MacclesfieldSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Mansfield Town 33%, the draw 25% and Macclesfield 42%, with Macclesfield favoured; it put Mansfield Town winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in.

Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Swindon TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Milton Keynes Dons 50%, the draw 23% and Swindon Town 27%, so Milton Keynes Dons winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in.

Newport County 3–1 WalsallSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Newport County 33%, the draw 26% and Walsall 41%, with Walsall favoured; it put Newport County winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, came in. Pick published: Newport County -0.5 at 2.50 — won.

Oxford United 0–1 StevenageSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Oxford United 44%, the draw 28% and Stevenage 28%, with Oxford United favoured; it put Stevenage winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, came in.

Plymouth 4–0 AlvechurchSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Plymouth 27%, the draw 21% and Alvechurch 52%, with Alvechurch favoured; it put Plymouth winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, Alvechurch to win at 52%, did not come in.

Port Vale 4–2 ScunthorpeSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Port Vale 22%, the draw 25% and Scunthorpe 53%, with Scunthorpe favoured; it put Port Vale winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Scunthorpe to win at 53%, did not come in.

Salisbury 6–0 SholingSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Salisbury 48%, the draw 24% and Sholing 28%, so Salisbury winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, did not come in.

York 4–0 NorthamptonSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had York 57%, the draw 23% and Northampton 20%, so York winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, York to win at 57%, came in.

Altrincham 2–2 Notts CountySat 7 Nov, 17:30

Before kick-off the model had Altrincham 52%, the draw 23% and Notts County 25%, with Altrincham favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Altrincham to win at 52%, did not come in.

Peterborough 0–5 ReadingSat 7 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Peterborough 25%, the draw 21% and Reading 55%, so Reading winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, Reading to win at 55%, came in. Pick published: Reading at 2.43 — won.

Stafford Rangers 2–2 GrimsbySun 8 Nov, 12:00

Before kick-off the model had Stafford Rangers 55%, the draw 22% and Grimsby 24%, with Stafford Rangers favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, came in.

Cray Wanderers 2–2 Stockport CountySun 8 Nov, 14:15

Before kick-off the model had Cray Wanderers 40%, the draw 27% and Stockport County 32%, with Cray Wanderers favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Cray Wanderers to win at 40%, did not come in.

Wimborne Town 2–0 Crawley TownSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Wimborne Town 55%, the draw 26% and Crawley Town 18%, so Wimborne Town winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, came in.

Oldham 1–1 Sheffield WednesdaySun 8 Nov, 17:15

Before kick-off the model had Oldham 43%, the draw 26% and Sheffield Wednesday 32%, with Oldham favoured; it put the draw at 26%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in.

Plymouth Parkway 1–1 BerkhamstedMon 9 Nov, 19:30

Before kick-off the model had Plymouth Parkway 40%, the draw 25% and Berkhamsted 36%, with Plymouth Parkway favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 64%, came in.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.