Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5LWDDL15th4–0AFC Rushden & Diamonds won 4 of the last 5LWWWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Burton Albion
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
14
Shots
6
8
Shots on target
2
11
Corners
3
9
Fouls
11
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
4
Offsides
1
—
Passes
—
60%
Possession %
40%
—
xG
—
28%
24%
49%
1 · Burton AlbionXAFC Rushden & Diamonds · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
63%
Model pick
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 49%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.84
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Burton Albion
27.7%
3.61
1.10 Bet365
90.9%
-63.2
Match result
Draw
23.7%
4.21
12.00 Betfair
8.3%
+15.4
Match result
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
48.6%
2.06
29.00 William Hill
3.4%
+45.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.20
1.11 Betano
90.1%
-6.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.7%
6.00
8.00 Betfair
12.5%
+4.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.9%
1.61
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-12.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.1%
2.63
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
+8.7
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.7%
2.52
1.85 Betano
54.1%
-14.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.3%
1.66
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+10.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
62.9%
1.59
2.88 Betfair
34.7%
+28.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
37.1%
2.70
1.57 William Hill
63.7%
-26.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds favoured against Burton Albion
Our model makes Burton Albion 28% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds at 49%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Burton Albion against 1.84 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds — a clear edge to AFC Rushden & Diamonds on expected output. A combined 3.20 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 9%
0-1 7%
0-2 7%
2-1 7%
This season
Season records for Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burton Albion
Metric
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
0.80
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
0.80 (better)
Goals conceded
1.20
1.07
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.00
Shots on target
8.00 (better)
14.80
Total shots
15.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
6.00 (better)
Corners
4.00
47.0 (better)
Possession %
37.0
376
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
11.80
Fouls
—
0.80
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.80 (better)
Yellow cards
4.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Burton Albion v 
AFC Rushden & Diamonds