Colchester won 0 of the last 5LLDDL23rd1–0Worcester City won 3 of the last 5LWDWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Colchester
Worcester City
17
Shots
9
7
Shots on target
2
4
Corners
0
7
Fouls
18
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
4
—
Passes
—
62%
Possession %
38%
—
xG
—
24%
27%
50%
1 · ColchesterXWorcester City · 2
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
26%
Both score
51%
Model pick
Worcester City 50%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.56
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Colchester
23.7%
4.22
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-50.9
Match result
Draw
26.6%
3.77
5.60 Dafabet
17.9%
+8.7
Match result
Worcester City
49.7%
2.01
9.00 William Hill
11.1%
+38.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.37
1.17 Bet365
85.5%
-12.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
26.8%
3.74
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+8.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
47.3%
2.11
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-18.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
52.7%
1.90
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+13.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
25.7%
3.89
2.30 Betfair
43.5%
-17.8
Total goals
Under 3.5
74.3%
1.35
1.60 Betfair
62.5%
+11.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
50.7%
1.97
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
-1.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
49.3%
2.03
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-0.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Worcester City favoured against Colchester
Our model makes Colchester 24% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 27% and Worcester City at 50%. The goal projection is 1.00 for Colchester against 1.56 for Worcester City — a substantial edge to Worcester City on expected output. A combined 2.57 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Colchester
Metric
Worcester City
0.40
Goals scored
1.20 (better)
1.00
Goals conceded
1.00
1.02
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
2.40
Shots on target
—
10.20
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.40
Corners
—
53.0
Possession %
—
430
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
15.80
Fouls
—
2.60
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.40
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Colchester v 
Worcester City