Guiseley AFC won 5 of the last 5WWWWW1–0Sutton Utd won 1 of the last 2LW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Guiseley AFC
Sutton Utd
11
Shots
7
2
Shots on target
1
7
Corners
7
16
Fouls
22
3
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
1
—
Passes
—
46%
Possession %
54%
—
xG
—
54%
23%
23%
1 · Guiseley AFCXSutton Utd · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
40%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Guiseley AFC 54%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.23
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Guiseley AFC
54.2%
1.84
3.50 William Hill
28.6%
+25.7
Match result
Draw
22.8%
4.40
4.20 Bet365
23.8%
-1.1
Match result
Sutton Utd
23.0%
4.34
2.26 Dafabet
44.2%
-21.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.20
1.26 Betano
79.4%
+4.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
16.5%
6.04
4.10 Betfair
24.4%
-7.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
62.1%
1.61
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+9.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
37.9%
2.64
2.10 Bet365
47.6%
-9.8
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.9%
2.51
3.10 Betfair
32.3%
+7.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
60.1%
1.66
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-11.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
61.5%
1.63
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+1.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
38.5%
2.60
2.20 Betfair
45.5%
-6.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Guiseley AFC favoured against Sutton Utd
Our model makes Guiseley AFC 54% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Sutton Utd at 23%. The goal projection is 1.98 for Guiseley AFC against 1.23 for Sutton Utd — a substantial edge to Guiseley AFC on expected output. A combined 3.21 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 62% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Guiseley AFC
Metric
Sutton Utd
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
0.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
8.00
Shots on target
—
16.00
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00
Corners
—
51.0
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.00
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Guiseley AFC v 
Sutton Utd