Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5WLLWD14th5–1Harborough Town won 3 of the last 4LWWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Leyton Orient
Harborough Town
20
Shots
7
10
Shots on target
5
5
Corners
8
7
Fouls
7
2
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
3
Offsides
2
—
Passes
—
47%
Possession %
53%
—
xG
—
24%
24%
52%
1 · Leyton OrientXHarborough Town · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
35%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Harborough Town 52%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.17 – 1.84
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Leyton Orient
23.7%
4.23
1.40 Dafabet
71.4%
-47.8
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.18
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+5.4
Match result
Harborough Town
52.5%
1.91
7.50 Bet365
13.3%
+39.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
80.8%
1.24
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-5.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
19.2%
5.20
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
+2.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
57.9%
1.73
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-8.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
42.1%
2.38
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
+4.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
35.5%
2.82
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
-9.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
64.5%
1.55
1.65 Betano
60.6%
+3.9
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
58.6%
1.71
1.73 Betfair
57.8%
+0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
41.4%
2.41
2.10 William Hill
47.6%
-6.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Harborough Town favoured against Leyton Orient
Our model makes Leyton Orient 24% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Harborough Town at 52%. The goal projection is 1.17 for Leyton Orient against 1.84 for Harborough Town — a substantial edge to Harborough Town on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
1-2 10%
0-1 9%
0-2 8%
2-1 6%
This season
Season records for Leyton Orient and Harborough Town
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leyton Orient
Metric
Harborough Town
0.60
Goals scored
1.60 (better)
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.40
1.39
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
4.20
Shots on target
10.00 (better)
14.00
Total shots
21.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
3.80
Corners
7.00 (better)
46.6
Possession %
57.0 (better)
359
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
12.00
Fouls
—
1.60
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.40
Yellow cards
0.00 (better)
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Leyton Orient v 
Harborough Town