Predicted Edge

Salisbury v Sholing

Salisbury won 4 of the last 46–0Sholing won 4 of the last 5

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Salisbury Sholing
—Shots—
0Shots on target0
—Corners—
—Fouls—
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
—Offsides—
—Passes—
55%Possession %45%
—xG—
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
38%
Both score
61%
Model pick
Salisbury 48%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.79 – 1.31

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Total goalsUnder 1.517.9%5.584.50 Bet36522.2%-4.3
Total goalsOver 2.559.9%1.671.73 Bet36557.8%+2.1
Total goalsUnder 2.540.1%2.502.30 Bet36543.5%-3.4
Total goalsOver 3.537.6%2.662.75 BetVictor36.4%+1.2
Total goalsUnder 3.562.4%1.601.50 Bet36566.7%-4.2
Match resultSalisbury48.3%2.071.42 Dafabet70.4%-22.1
Match resultDraw24.2%4.145.00 Dafabet20.0%+4.2
Match resultSholing27.5%3.637.80 Dafabet12.8%+14.7
Total goalsOver 1.582.1%1.221.22 Betano82.0%+0.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes61.4%1.631.95 Bet36551.3%+10.1
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No38.6%2.591.91 William Hill52.4%-13.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Salisbury favoured against Sholing

Our model makes Salisbury 48% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Sholing at 28%. The goal projection is 1.79 for Salisbury against 1.31 for Sholing — a clear edge to Salisbury on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-0 8%
2-0 7%
1-2 7%

This season

Season records for Salisbury and Sholing
Salisbury Sholing
4Played5
4-0-0W-D-L4-0-1
3.00Pts / game2.40
4.50Goals for / game1.40
0.25Goals against / game1.40
100%Over 2.540%
25%BTTS20%
75%Clean sheets60%
0%Failed to score20%
4-0-0Home record2-0-0
0-0-0Away record2-0-1
W4StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Salisbury · Sholing

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
—Shots—
0.0Shots on target0.0
—Corners—
1.00Cards2.00
—Fouls—
55Possession %45
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
—Shots—
0.0Shots on target0.0
—Corners—
2.00Cards1.00
—Fouls—
45Possession %55
—xG—
1 matchessample1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SalisburyMetricSholing
2.60 (better)Goals scored1.60
0.40 (better)Goals conceded1.60
Expected goals (xG)
Big chances
Shots on target
Total shots
Touches in opp. box
Corners
Possession %
Passes
Tackles
Fouls
Offsides
Throw-ins
Yellow cards
Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Salisbury wins
1
Draws
0
Sholing wins
0
Goals / game
6.00
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
0%