Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5DWWWW1st1–2Exeter City won 3 of the last 5LWWDW12th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Huddersfield
Exeter City
17
Shots
7
7
Shots on target
4
10
Corners
5
10
Fouls
11
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
0
—
Passes
—
46%
Possession %
54%
—
xG
—
55%
24%
21%
1 · HuddersfieldXExeter City · 2
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
33%
Both score
55%
Model pick
Huddersfield 55%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.05
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Huddersfield
55.2%
1.81
1.41 Dafabet
70.9%
-15.7
Match result
Draw
23.9%
4.19
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+5.7
Match result
Exeter City
20.9%
4.77
10.00 Bet365
10.0%
+10.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
78.8%
1.27
1.19 Betano
84.0%
-5.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
21.2%
4.72
5.50 Betfair
18.2%
+3.0
Total goals
Over 2.5
55.0%
1.82
1.60 Betano
62.5%
-7.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
45.0%
2.22
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+4.2
Total goals
Over 3.5
32.7%
3.06
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-8.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
67.3%
1.49
1.55 Betano
64.5%
+2.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
55.2%
1.81
1.91 Bet365
52.4%
+2.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
44.8%
2.23
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-5.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Huddersfield favoured against Exeter City
Our model makes Huddersfield 55% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and Exeter City at 21%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Huddersfield against 1.05 for Exeter City — a substantial edge to Huddersfield on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Huddersfield
Metric
Exeter City
3.00 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
0.80
Goals conceded
0.60 (better)
2.63 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.12
—
Big chances *
—
6.40 (better)
Shots on target
2.80
16.00 (better)
Total shots
9.20
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.60 (better)
Corners
3.00
45.8
Possession %
45.8
350
Passes
363 (better)
—
Tackles
—
13.80
Fouls
10.60 (better)
1.40 (better)
Offsides
1.60
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
2.00
0.33
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Huddersfield v 
Exeter City