AFC Hornchurch won 1 of the last 2DW1–11–2 aetBlackpool won 1 of the last 5DLWLL19th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
AFC Hornchurch
Blackpool
1
Shots
3
1
Shots on target
2
2
Corners
8
11
Fouls
13
3
Yellow cards
0
1
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
3
—
Passes
—
39%
Possession %
61%
—
xG
—
60%
20%
20%
1 · AFC HornchurchXBlackpool · 2
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
51%
Both score
67%
Model pick
AFC Hornchurch 60%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.33
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
AFC Hornchurch
60.4%
1.66
4.20 Bet365
23.8%
+36.6
Match result
Draw
19.7%
5.07
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
-4.6
Match result
Blackpool
19.9%
5.03
1.82 Dafabet
54.9%
-35.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.8%
1.13
1.18 Betano
84.7%
+4.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.2%
8.96
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-8.8
Total goals
Over 2.5
71.6%
1.40
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+7.9
Total goals
Under 2.5
28.4%
3.52
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-12.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
50.7%
1.97
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
+9.9
Total goals
Under 3.5
49.3%
2.03
1.57 Betano
63.7%
-14.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
67.1%
1.49
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+3.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
32.9%
3.04
2.45 Betfair
40.8%
-7.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AFC Hornchurch favoured against Blackpool
Our model makes AFC Hornchurch 60% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 20% and Blackpool at 20%. The goal projection is 2.38 for AFC Hornchurch against 1.33 for Blackpool — a commanding edge to AFC Hornchurch on expected output. A combined 3.71 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 72% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. AFC Hornchurch is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 40% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
AFC Hornchurch
Metric
Blackpool
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.00 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
1.26
—
Big chances *
—
—
Shots on target
5.20
—
Total shots
12.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
—
Corners
6.60
—
Possession %
49.2
—
Passes
392
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
12.40
—
Offsides
2.20
—
Throw-ins *
—
—
Yellow cards
2.40
—
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
AFC Hornchurch v 
Blackpool