Bromley v Rotherham

24th0–222nd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bromley		Rotherham
13	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	5
6	Corners	2
14	Fouls	6
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
—	Passes	—
62%	Possession %	38%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 69%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Bromley 49%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.04 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Bromley	49.5%	2.02	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+4.4
Match result	Draw	22.3%	4.49	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	-4.4
Match result	Rotherham	28.2%	3.54	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.4%	1.14	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.6%	7.92	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-7.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.8%	1.45	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.2%	3.21	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-10.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	47.4%	2.11	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	+8.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	52.6%	1.90	1.55 Betano	64.5%	-11.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.2%	1.47	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+2.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.8%	3.15	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-7.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bromley favoured against Rotherham

Our model makes Bromley 50% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Rotherham at 28%. The goal projection is 2.04 for Bromley against 1.51 for Rotherham — a substantial edge to Bromley on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Bromley and Rotherham
Bromley		Rotherham
13	Played	14
2-3-8	W-D-L	2-6-6
0.69	Pts / game	0.86
1.00	Goals for / game	1.29
2.54	Goals against / game	1.79
62%	Over 2.5	57%
62%	BTTS	71%
8%	Clean sheets	7%
31%	Failed to score	21%
1-2-3	Home record	1-5-1
1-1-5	Away record	1-1-5
L2	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bromley · Rotherham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.6	Shots	9.4
3.1	Shots on target	3.3
3.7	Corners	2.5
2.43	Cards	2.30
13.3	Fouls	13.4
38	Possession %	47
0.83	xG	1.05
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.0	Shots	12.9
5.7	Shots on target	4.3
6.4	Corners	5.5
1.29	Cards	1.64
10.6	Fouls	11.8
62	Possession %	53
2.07	xG	1.86
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bromley	Metric	Rotherham
0.60	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.40 (better)	Goals conceded	3.00
0.61	Expected goals (xG)	1.30 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	3.60 (better)
7.60	Total shots	10.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	3.80 (better)
32.6	Possession %	51.2 (better)
242	Passes	371 (better)
	Tackles
12.60 (better)	Fouls	15.40
2.40	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bromley wins: 0
Draws: 0
Rotherham wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Bromley v Rotherham0–22026-11-07