Oxford United won 3 of the last 5WDWDW3rd0–1Stevenage won 2 of the last 5DLWLW16th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Oxford United
Stevenage
8
Shots
13
2
Shots on target
4
9
Corners
7
14
Fouls
15
1
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
3
—
Passes
—
61%
Possession %
39%
—
xG
—
44%
28%
28%
1 · Oxford UnitedXStevenage · 2
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
23%
Both score
50%
Model pick
Oxford United 44%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.06
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Oxford United
43.9%
2.28
2.11 Dafabet
47.4%
-3.4
Match result
Draw
28.1%
3.56
3.45 Dafabet
29.0%
-0.9
Match result
Stevenage
27.9%
3.58
3.70 Bet365
27.0%
+0.9
Total goals
Over 1.5
70.9%
1.41
1.34 Betano
74.6%
-3.7
Total goals
Under 1.5
29.1%
3.44
3.40 Bet365
29.4%
-0.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
44.4%
2.25
2.02 Betano
49.5%
-5.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
55.6%
1.80
1.80 Bet365
55.6%
+0.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
23.2%
4.31
3.60 BetVictor
27.8%
-4.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
76.8%
1.30
1.30 Bet365
76.9%
-0.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
49.7%
2.01
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-3.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
50.3%
1.99
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
+0.3
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Oxford United favoured against Stevenage
Our model makes Oxford United 44% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 28% and Stevenage at 28%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Oxford United against 1.06 for Stevenage — a clear edge to Oxford United on expected output. A combined 2.45 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 44% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Oxford United
Metric
Stevenage
1.20
Goals scored
1.20
0.60 (better)
Goals conceded
0.80
1.59 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.29
—
Big chances *
—
4.20 (better)
Shots on target
4.00
14.00 (better)
Total shots
12.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
5.00 (better)
Corners
4.20
46.8 (better)
Possession %
44.4
396 (better)
Passes
321
—
Tackles
—
11.60
Fouls
9.60 (better)
1.60
Offsides
1.20 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Oxford United v 
Stevenage