Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5LWDLD10th4–3Yeovil Town won 1 of the last 3LWD
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Chesterfield
Yeovil Town
20
Shots
6
10
Shots on target
4
12
Corners
2
6
Fouls
5
0
Yellow cards
0
0
Red cards
0
—
Offsides
—
—
Passes
—
47%
Possession %
53%
—
xG
—
36%
20%
43%
1 · ChesterfieldXYeovil Town · 2
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
80%
Over 3.5
62%
Both score
78%
Model pick
Yeovil Town 43%
Likely score
2-2 7%
Expected goals
2.05 – 2.24
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Chesterfield
36.2%
2.76
1.51 Dafabet
66.2%
-30.0
Match result
Draw
20.5%
4.88
4.80 Dafabet
20.8%
-0.3
Match result
Yeovil Town
43.3%
2.31
6.00 Bet365
16.7%
+26.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
93.1%
1.07
1.17 Betano
85.5%
+7.6
Total goals
Under 1.5
6.9%
14.41
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-11.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
80.1%
1.25
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+14.8
Total goals
Under 2.5
19.9%
5.03
2.62 Bet365
38.2%
-18.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
62.1%
1.61
2.30 Betano
43.5%
+18.6
Total goals
Under 3.5
37.9%
2.64
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-23.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
78.2%
1.28
1.70 Betano
58.8%
+19.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
21.8%
4.58
2.25 BetVictor
44.4%
-22.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Yeovil Town favoured against Chesterfield
Our model makes Chesterfield 36% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 20% and Yeovil Town at 43%. The goal projection is 2.05 for Chesterfield against 2.24 for Yeovil Town — a slight edge to Yeovil Town on expected output. A combined 4.29 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 80% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Chesterfield
Metric
Yeovil Town
2.40
Goals scored
3.40 (better)
1.40 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
2.30
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
5.40
Shots on target
—
17.40
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.60
Corners
—
63.4
Possession %
—
550
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
9.20
Fouls
—
2.40
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.40
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Chesterfield v 
Yeovil Town