Oldham won 2 of the last 5WLDLW18th1–12–1 aetSheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5DDLLW9th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Oldham
Sheffield Wednesday
13
Shots
14
5
Shots on target
6
2
Corners
8
20
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
3
327
Passes
775
29%
Possession %
71%
—
xG
—
43%
26%
32%
1 · OldhamXSheffield Wednesday · 2
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
34%
Both score
59%
Model pick
Oldham 43%
Likely score
1-1 12%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.34
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Oldham
42.6%
2.35
4.50 William Hill
22.2%
+20.4
Match result
Draw
25.6%
3.91
4.00 William Hill
25.0%
+0.6
Match result
Sheffield Wednesday
31.8%
3.15
1.97 Dafabet
50.8%
-19.0
Total goals
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.26
1.20 Betano
83.3%
-3.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
20.4%
4.89
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
+0.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
56.1%
1.78
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-5.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
43.9%
2.28
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
+1.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
33.7%
2.97
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
-6.3
Total goals
Under 3.5
66.3%
1.51
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+4.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
59.3%
1.69
1.53 William Hill
65.4%
-6.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
40.7%
2.46
2.62 Bet365
38.2%
+2.5
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Oldham favoured against Sheffield Wednesday
Our model makes Oldham 43% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 26% and Sheffield Wednesday at 32%. The goal projection is 1.59 for Oldham against 1.34 for Sheffield Wednesday — a slight edge to Oldham on expected output. A combined 2.93 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 56% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Oldham
Metric
Sheffield Wednesday
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded
1.40 (better)
1.99 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.52
—
Big chances *
—
4.40
Shots on target
5.80 (better)
16.60 (better)
Total shots
15.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.00
Corners
4.20 (better)
46.0
Possession %
61.0 (better)
354
Passes
507 (better)
—
Tackles
—
12.80
Fouls
10.20 (better)
1.60
Offsides
1.00 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.20 (better)
Yellow cards
2.00
0.40
Red cards
0.25 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Oldham v 
Sheffield Wednesday