Plymouth v Alvechurch

5th4–0

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Plymouth		Alvechurch
23	Shots	0
8	Shots on target	0
6	Corners	4
14	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
—	Passes	—
73%	Possession %	27%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 75%
Over 3.5: 55%
Both score: 72%

Model pick: Alvechurch 52%
Likely score: 1-2 9%
Expected goals: 1.63 – 2.27

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Plymouth	27.3%	3.67	1.22 William Hill	82.0%	-54.7
Match result	Draw	20.8%	4.81	7.40 Dafabet	13.5%	+7.3
Match result	Alvechurch	51.9%	1.93	13.00 BetVictor	7.7%	+44.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.5%	1.11	1.13 Betano	88.5%	+2.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.5%	10.47	6.50 Betfair	15.4%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	74.7%	1.34	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	+5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	25.3%	3.95	2.88 Betfair	34.7%	-9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	54.7%	1.83	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+5.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	45.3%	2.21	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-11.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	72.5%	1.38	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+22.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	27.5%	3.63	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-25.9

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Alvechurch favoured against Plymouth

Our model makes Plymouth 27% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Alvechurch at 52%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Plymouth against 2.27 for Alvechurch — a substantial edge to Alvechurch on expected output. A combined 3.90 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 75% and both teams to score at 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 9%; 1-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 6%; 2-1 6%

This season

Season records for Plymouth and Alvechurch
Plymouth		Alvechurch
14	Played	6
7-2-5	W-D-L	4-1-1
1.64	Pts / game	2.17
1.50	Goals for / game	2.17
1.36	Goals against / game	1.33
50%	Over 2.5	83%
43%	BTTS	50%
29%	Clean sheets	33%
36%	Failed to score	17%
3-1-3	Home record	3-0-0
4-1-2	Away record	1-1-1
D1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Plymouth · Alvechurch

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	0.0
4.6	Shots on target	0.0
4.1	Corners	4.0
1.38	Cards	3.00
13.0	Fouls	13.0
53	Possession %	27
1.20	xG	—
8 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.1	Shots	23.0
4.8	Shots on target	8.0
6.8	Corners	6.0
1.75	Cards	1.00
11.3	Fouls	14.0
47	Possession %	73
1.59	xG	—
8 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Plymouth	Metric	Alvechurch
1.40	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
1.24	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target
13.00	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners
54.4	Possession %
399	Passes
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls
2.80	Offsides
	Throw-ins
1.25	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Plymouth wins: 1
Draws: 0
Alvechurch wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Plymouth v Alvechurch4–02026-11-07