Barnsley won 0 of the last 5DLLLL23rd7–2Aldershot Town won 1 of the last 3LWD
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Barnsley
Aldershot Town
20
Shots
9
9
Shots on target
5
4
Corners
1
17
Fouls
9
3
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
5
Offsides
1
—
Passes
—
60%
Possession %
40%
—
xG
—
24%
21%
55%
1 · BarnsleyXAldershot Town · 2
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
50%
Both score
69%
Model pick
Aldershot Town 55%
Likely score
1-2 9%
Expected goals
1.45 – 2.22
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Barnsley
24.3%
4.11
1.29 William Hill
77.5%
-53.2
Match result
Draw
21.1%
4.74
6.60 Dafabet
15.2%
+5.9
Match result
Aldershot Town
54.6%
1.83
10.00 Bet365
10.0%
+44.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
88.5%
1.13
1.12 Betano
89.3%
-0.8
Total goals
Under 1.5
11.5%
8.66
7.00 BetVictor
14.3%
-2.7
Total goals
Over 2.5
70.8%
1.41
1.40 Bet365
71.4%
-0.6
Total goals
Under 2.5
29.2%
3.43
3.20 Bet365
31.3%
-2.1
Total goals
Over 3.5
49.8%
2.01
2.00 Betfair
50.0%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 3.5
50.2%
1.99
1.87 Betfair
53.5%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
68.6%
1.46
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+11.4
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
31.4%
3.18
2.10 Betfair
47.6%
-16.2
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Aldershot Town favoured against Barnsley
Our model makes Barnsley 24% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Aldershot Town at 55%. The goal projection is 1.45 for Barnsley against 2.22 for Aldershot Town — a substantial edge to Aldershot Town on expected output. A combined 3.66 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 69%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Barnsley
Metric
Aldershot Town
1.00
Goals scored
1.80 (better)
2.60
Goals conceded
1.60 (better)
1.42
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
6.00
Shots on target
—
19.00
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
8.00
Corners
—
55.8
Possession %
—
361
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
14.40
Fouls
—
2.20
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
1.60
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Football statistics and betting opinion for adults. Gambling involves risk — never stake money you cannot afford to lose. By continuing you confirm you are 18 or over. We would also like to use analytics cookies to see which pages are useful. Privacy policy
Barnsley v 
Aldershot Town