Boreham Wood v Wigan

0–321st

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Boreham Wood		Wigan
6	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	7
3	Corners	7
8	Fouls	10
0	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
—	Passes	—
88%	Possession %	12%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 68%
Over 3.5: 47%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Boreham Wood 55%
Likely score: 2-1 9%
Expected goals: 2.15 – 1.38

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Boreham Wood	54.8%	1.82	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-0.7
Match result	Draw	21.5%	4.65	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-0.7
Match result	Wigan	23.7%	4.22	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	-0.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	87.1%	1.15	1.16 Betano	86.2%	+0.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	12.9%	7.77	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	68.4%	1.46	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	31.6%	3.17	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-6.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	46.9%	2.13	2.22 Betano	45.0%	+1.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	53.1%	1.88	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-6.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.5%	1.50	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+1.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.5%	2.98	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-4.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Boreham Wood favoured against Wigan

Our model makes Boreham Wood 55% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and Wigan at 24%. The goal projection is 2.15 for Boreham Wood against 1.38 for Wigan — a substantial edge to Boreham Wood on expected output. A combined 3.53 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 9%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 7%; 3-1 7%; 2-2 6%

This season

Season records for Boreham Wood and Wigan
Boreham Wood		Wigan
2	Played	14
1-0-1	W-D-L	3-2-9
1.50	Pts / game	0.79
1.50	Goals for / game	0.79
2.50	Goals against / game	1.57
100%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	36%
0%	Clean sheets	21%
50%	Failed to score	57%
1-0-1	Home record	3-1-3
0-0-0	Away record	0-1-6
L1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Boreham Wood · Wigan

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	10.4
3.5	Shots on target	3.5
4.5	Corners	4.5
0.50	Cards	2.50
8.0	Fouls	11.1
74	Possession %	45
—	xG	1.09
2 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0	Shots	14.6
7.0	Shots on target	4.6
5.5	Corners	4.9
0.50	Cards	2.75
10.0	Fouls	14.3
27	Possession %	55
—	xG	2.17
2 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Boreham Wood	Metric	Wigan
3.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
	Expected goals (xG)	0.71
	Big chances
	Shots on target	2.20
	Total shots	8.60
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	4.00
	Possession %	47.8
	Passes	422
	Tackles
	Fouls	12.20
	Offsides	2.40
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	3.40
	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Boreham Wood wins: 0
Draws: 0
Wigan wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Boreham Wood v Wigan0–32026-11-07