Crewe v AFC Wimbledon

4th2–118th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Crewe		AFC Wimbledon
7	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	10
10	Fouls	14
5	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
—	Passes	—
58%	Possession %	42%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Crewe 53%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.83 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Crewe	52.6%	1.90	2.50 Betano	40.0%	+12.6
Match result	Draw	24.0%	4.17	3.40 Dafabet	29.4%	-5.4
Match result	AFC Wimbledon	23.4%	4.28	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.3%	1.25	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.7%	5.08	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-8.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.3%	1.75	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+7.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.7%	2.34	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-12.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.9%	2.87	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+7.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.1%	1.53	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	-11.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.0%	1.73	1.78 Betano	56.2%	+1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.0%	2.38	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-5.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Crewe favoured against AFC Wimbledon

Our model makes Crewe 53% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 24% and AFC Wimbledon at 23%. The goal projection is 1.83 for Crewe against 1.15 for AFC Wimbledon — a substantial edge to Crewe on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 1-2 6%

This season

Season records for Crewe and AFC Wimbledon
Crewe		AFC Wimbledon
14	Played	13
5-7-2	W-D-L	3-4-6
1.57	Pts / game	1.00
1.21	Goals for / game	0.69
1.21	Goals against / game	1.62
29%	Over 2.5	46%
64%	BTTS	38%
29%	Clean sheets	38%
14%	Failed to score	38%
3-4-0	Home record	2-3-1
2-3-2	Away record	1-1-5
D1	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Crewe · AFC Wimbledon

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.6	Shots	11.0
3.1	Shots on target	3.0
3.0	Corners	6.3
1.88	Cards	1.43
10.6	Fouls	11.3
46	Possession %	40
1.03	xG	0.89
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	16.1
3.5	Shots on target	6.3
5.1	Corners	5.4
1.75	Cards	1.71
13.3	Fouls	8.1
54	Possession %	60
1.19	xG	2.16
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Crewe	Metric	AFC Wimbledon
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
2.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.37 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.86
	Big chances
3.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
9.80	Total shots	12.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	7.00 (better)
43.4	Possession %	43.4
367 (better)	Passes	345
	Tackles
9.80 (better)	Fouls	11.00
2.00	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.20	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Crewe wins: 1
Draws: 0
AFC Wimbledon wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Crewe v AFC Wimbledon2–12026-11-07