No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Harrogate Town
20.3%
4.92
2.02 Dafabet
49.5%
-29.2
Match result
Draw
21.0%
4.75
4.10 Bet365
24.4%
-3.3
Match result
AFC Fylde
58.6%
1.71
3.50 Bet365
28.6%
+30.1
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.0%
1.16
1.16 Betano
86.2%
-0.2
Total goals
Under 1.5
14.0%
7.13
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-2.6
Total goals
Over 2.5
66.4%
1.51
1.53 Betano
65.4%
+1.0
Total goals
Under 2.5
33.6%
2.98
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-4.4
Total goals
Over 3.5
44.6%
2.24
2.30 Betano
43.5%
+1.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
55.4%
1.80
1.67 Betano
59.9%
-4.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.3%
1.58
1.50 Bet365
66.7%
-3.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.7%
2.73
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
-0.4
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
AFC Fylde favoured against Harrogate Town
Our model makes Harrogate Town 20% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 21% and AFC Fylde at 59%. The goal projection is 1.23 for Harrogate Town against 2.19 for AFC Fylde — a commanding edge to AFC Fylde on expected output. A combined 3.42 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Harrogate Town
Metric
AFC Fylde
1.60
Goals scored
2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)
Goals conceded
1.60
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
7.00
Shots on target
—
22.00
Total shots
—
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
7.00
Corners
—
57.0
Possession %
—
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
—
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00
Yellow cards
—
0.00
Red cards
—
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Harrogate Town v 
AFC Fylde