York v Northampton

7th4–021st

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
York		Northampton
11	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	2
5	Corners	2
6	Fouls	13
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
—	Passes	—
66%	Possession %	34%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: York 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.92 – 1.07

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	York	56.7%	1.76	1.88 Dafabet	53.2%	+3.5
Match result	Draw	23.1%	4.33	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-3.9
Match result	Northampton	20.2%	4.94	4.40 Dafabet	22.7%	-2.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.4%	1.24	1.30 Betano	76.9%	+3.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.6%	5.10	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-7.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.3%	1.74	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+7.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.7%	2.34	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-9.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.9%	2.86	3.35 Betano	29.9%	+5.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.1%	1.54	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-9.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.5%	1.77	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+2.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.5%	2.30	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

York favoured against Northampton

Our model makes York 57% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Northampton at 20%. The goal projection is 1.92 for York against 1.07 for Northampton — a substantial edge to York on expected output. A combined 2.99 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for York and Northampton
York		Northampton
14	Played	13
5-5-4	W-D-L	3-5-5
1.43	Pts / game	1.08
1.71	Goals for / game	0.69
1.50	Goals against / game	0.77
50%	Over 2.5	0%
71%	BTTS	31%
21%	Clean sheets	31%
7%	Failed to score	46%
5-2-0	Home record	2-2-3
0-3-4	Away record	1-3-2
L2	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. York · Northampton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	12.7
3.8	Shots on target	3.7
4.3	Corners	5.4
1.75	Cards	1.29
9.1	Fouls	13.0
59	Possession %	44
1.26	xG	1.11
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.4	Shots	10.9
3.9	Shots on target	3.1
4.6	Corners	4.3
2.13	Cards	1.43
13.3	Fouls	9.6
41	Possession %	56
1.38	xG	1.51
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
York	Metric	Northampton
1.20	Goals scored	1.20
1.20	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.36	Expected goals (xG)	1.86 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
12.20	Total shots	13.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.20	Corners	6.40 (better)
54.8 (better)	Possession %	43.4
451 (better)	Passes	348
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	14.60
2.00	Offsides	1.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

York wins: 1
Draws: 1
Northampton wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

York v Northampton4–02026-11-07
York v Northampton1–12026-10-10