Kidderminster Harriers v Doncaster

3–020th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Kidderminster Harriers		Doncaster
12	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
2	Corners	4
10	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
—	Passes	—
39%	Possession %	61%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 59%
Over 3.5: 37%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Kidderminster Harriers 46%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.34

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Kidderminster Harriers	46.2%	2.16	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	+22.4
Match result	Draw	24.5%	4.07	3.90 Dafabet	25.6%	-1.1
Match result	Doncaster	29.2%	3.42	1.83 Dafabet	54.6%	-25.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	81.7%	1.22	1.21 Betano	82.6%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	18.3%	5.47	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	59.3%	1.69	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.7%	2.46	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.0%	2.71	2.70 Betfair	37.0%	-0.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	63.0%	1.59	1.47 Betano	68.0%	-5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	61.4%	1.63	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	38.6%	2.59	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-5.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Kidderminster Harriers favoured against Doncaster

Our model makes Kidderminster Harriers 46% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Doncaster at 29%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Kidderminster Harriers against 1.34 for Doncaster — a clear edge to Kidderminster Harriers on expected output. A combined 3.08 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 7%; 1-2 7%; 2-0 7%

This season

Season records for Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster
Kidderminster Harriers		Doncaster
2	Played	13
2-0-0	W-D-L	3-3-7
3.00	Pts / game	0.92
2.50	Goals for / game	1.08
0.50	Goals against / game	1.69
100%	Over 2.5	46%
50%	BTTS	54%
50%	Clean sheets	31%
0%	Failed to score	23%
2-0-0	Home record	2-2-2
0-0-0	Away record	1-1-5
W2	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kidderminster Harriers · Doncaster

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.5	Shots	12.6
4.0	Shots on target	2.7
3.5	Corners	5.0
2.00	Cards	2.43
10.0	Fouls	10.1
43	Possession %	45
—	xG	0.77
2 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.0	Shots	17.3
4.0	Shots on target	6.9
4.5	Corners	5.7
2.00	Cards	1.43
11.0	Fouls	12.4
57	Possession %	55
—	xG	2.29
2 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Kidderminster Harriers	Metric	Doncaster
0.80	Goals scored	1.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
	Expected goals (xG)	0.75
	Big chances
	Shots on target	3.00
	Total shots	13.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	5.20
	Possession %	40.8
	Passes	341
	Tackles
	Fouls	9.40
	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	2.40
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Kidderminster Harriers wins: 1
Draws: 0
Doncaster wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Kidderminster Harriers v Doncaster3–02026-11-07