Plymouth Parkway won 4 of the last 5DWWWW1–12–1 aetBerkhamsted won 4 of the last 5DWWWW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Plymouth Parkway
Berkhamsted
18
Shots
14
2
Shots on target
1
4
Corners
5
15
Fouls
15
2
Yellow cards
1
0
Red cards
0
1
Offsides
3
613
Passes
453
57%
Possession %
43%
—
xG
—
40%
25%
36%
1 · Plymouth ParkwayXBerkhamsted · 2
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
39%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Plymouth Parkway 40%
Likely score
1-1 11%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.54
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Plymouth Parkway
39.6%
2.52
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
-4.8
Match result
Draw
24.6%
4.07
4.10 Dafabet
24.4%
+0.2
Match result
Berkhamsted
35.8%
2.79
4.50 Betfair
22.2%
+13.6
Total goals
Over 1.5
83.0%
1.21
1.20 Bet365
83.3%
-0.3
Total goals
Under 1.5
17.0%
5.88
5.50 Bet365
18.2%
-1.2
Total goals
Over 2.5
61.3%
1.63
1.67 Bet365
59.9%
+1.5
Total goals
Under 2.5
38.7%
2.59
2.50 Bet365
40.0%
-1.3
Total goals
Over 3.5
39.0%
2.56
2.70 Betfair
37.0%
+2.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
61.0%
1.64
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-0.8
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
63.7%
1.57
1.65 Betfair
60.6%
+3.1
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
36.3%
2.75
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-1.7
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Plymouth Parkway v Berkhamsted: too close to call
Our model makes Plymouth Parkway 40% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 25% and Berkhamsted at 36%. The goal projection is 1.63 for Plymouth Parkway against 1.54 for Berkhamsted — almost nothing to Plymouth Parkway on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
1-1 11%
2-1 9%
1-2 8%
2-2 7%
1-0 6%
This season
Season records for Plymouth Parkway and Berkhamsted
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (4 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Plymouth Parkway
Metric
Berkhamsted
1.25
Goals scored
1.40 (better)
1.50 (better)
Goals conceded
1.80
—
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
0.00
Shots on target
5.00 (better)
0.00
Total shots
9.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
0.00
Corners
3.00 (better)
50.0 (better)
Possession %
25.0
—
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
—
0.00
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
0.00 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
0.00
Red cards
0.00
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Plymouth Parkway v 
Berkhamsted