Dover v Wealdstone

2–0

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Dover		Wealdstone
11	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	3
1	Corners	5
15	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
6	Offsides	1
—	Passes	—
38%	Possession %	62%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 90%
Over 2.5: 74%
Over 3.5: 54%
Both score: 74%

Model pick: Dover 42%
Likely score: 1-1 8%
Expected goals: 2.00 – 1.87

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wealdstone	36.4%	2.75	1.95 Dafabet	51.3%	-14.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	90.2%	1.11	1.15 Betano	87.0%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	9.8%	10.24	6.00 Bet365	16.7%	-6.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	74.2%	1.35	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+7.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	25.8%	3.88	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-12.3
Match result	Dover	41.8%	2.39	3.60 Bet365	27.8%	+14.0
Match result	Draw	21.8%	4.58	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	-3.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	54.1%	1.85	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	+8.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	45.9%	2.18	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	-14.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	73.5%	1.36	1.47 Betfair	68.0%	+5.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	26.5%	3.78	2.70 BetVictor	37.0%	-10.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Dover v Wealdstone: too close to call

Our model makes Dover 42% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Wealdstone at 36%. The goal projection is 2.00 for Dover against 1.87 for Wealdstone — a slight edge to Dover on expected output. A combined 3.87 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 74% and both teams to score at 74%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 1-2 7%; 3-1 5%

This season

Season records for Dover and Wealdstone
Dover		Wealdstone
4	Played	2
4-0-0	W-D-L	1-0-1
3.00	Pts / game	1.50
2.75	Goals for / game	1.50
1.25	Goals against / game	1.00
75%	Over 2.5	50%
75%	BTTS	0%
25%	Clean sheets	50%
0%	Failed to score	50%
3-0-0	Home record	1-0-0
1-0-0	Away record	0-0-1
W4	Streak	L1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Dover · Wealdstone

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	10.0
7.0	Shots on target	3.0
1.5	Corners	5.0
1.00	Cards	1.00
15.0	Fouls	8.0
36	Possession %	62
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	1 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.5	Shots	11.0
7.5	Shots on target	7.0
6.5	Corners	1.0
2.00	Cards	0.00
8.0	Fouls	15.0
65	Possession %	38
—	xG	—
3 matches	sample	1 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Dover	Metric	Wealdstone
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
	Expected goals (xG)
	Big chances
7.00	Shots on target
12.00	Total shots
	Touches in opp. box
2.00	Corners
33.0	Possession %
	Passes
	Tackles
	Fouls
	Offsides
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Dover wins: 1
Draws: 0
Wealdstone wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Dover v Wealdstone2–02026-11-07