Carlisle v Salford City

1–01st

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Carlisle		Salford City
11	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	4
14	Fouls	11
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
—	Passes	—
52%	Possession %	48%
—	xG	—

Over 1.5: 87%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 46%
Both score: 68%

Model pick: Salford City 40%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.79

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Carlisle	36.4%	2.75	2.95 Dafabet	33.9%	+2.5
Match result	Draw	23.3%	4.29	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-3.7
Match result	Salford City	40.4%	2.48	2.40 Betano	41.7%	-1.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.6%	1.16	1.18 Betano	84.7%	+1.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.4%	7.45	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-4.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	67.4%	1.48	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	32.6%	3.07	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-8.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.7%	2.19	2.38 Bet365	42.0%	+3.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.3%	1.84	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-8.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	68.3%	1.46	1.50 William Hill	66.7%	+1.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	31.7%	3.15	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-6.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Carlisle v Salford City: too close to call

Our model makes Carlisle 36% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 23% and Salford City at 40%. The goal projection is 1.69 for Carlisle against 1.79 for Salford City — almost nothing to Salford City on expected output. A combined 3.47 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 5%

This season

Season records for Carlisle and Salford City
Carlisle		Salford City
2	Played	14
2-0-0	W-D-L	10-1-3
3.00	Pts / game	2.21
1.50	Goals for / game	1.79
0.50	Goals against / game	1.07
50%	Over 2.5	57%
50%	BTTS	57%
50%	Clean sheets	29%
0%	Failed to score	14%
2-0-0	Home record	6-0-1
0-0-0	Away record	4-1-2
W2	Streak	W8

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Carlisle · Salford City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.5	Shots	13.8
6.0	Shots on target	4.5
8.5	Corners	5.3
2.00	Cards	1.88
14.0	Fouls	10.1
57	Possession %	51
—	xG	1.35
2 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.5	Shots	11.5
2.0	Shots on target	2.9
2.5	Corners	5.9
2.50	Cards	1.88
11.0	Fouls	13.4
43	Possession %	49
—	xG	1.05
2 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Carlisle	Metric	Salford City
2.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.00
	Expected goals (xG)	1.83
	Big chances
	Shots on target	5.60
	Total shots	15.00
	Touches in opp. box
	Corners	4.00
	Possession %	51.6
	Passes	431
	Tackles
	Fouls	9.80
	Offsides	0.80
	Throw-ins
	Yellow cards	2.00
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Carlisle wins: 1
Draws: 0
Salford City wins: 0
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Carlisle v Salford City1–02026-11-07