4th Round Qualifying
England
FA Cup predictions
Every FA Cup match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the FA Cup page.
32 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Bury, 82% against Harrogate Town at home; the most evenly balanced game is Dover v Dorking Wanderers (Dover 39%, draw 21%, Dorking Wanderers 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Chesham United v Forest Green, at 5.13.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
FA Cup32Prediction
4th Round Qualifying
4th Round Qualifying
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Match by match
Bury v Harrogate TownSat 17 Oct, 12:30
Our model makes Bury 82%, the draw 11% and Harrogate Town 7%. The likeliest score is 3-0 (8%), 4.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Bury to win at 82%. Bury have won all of their last three.
Plymouth Parkway v Chertsey TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Plymouth Parkway 41%, the draw 25% and Chertsey Town 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Plymouth Parkway have won all of their last three; Chertsey Town are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Harborough Town v Spennymoor TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Harborough Town 33%, the draw 24% and Spennymoor Town 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%.
Wealdstone v WorthingSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Wealdstone 38%, the draw 22% and Worthing 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%.
Boston United v ScunthorpeSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Boston United 37%, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%.
Wimborne Town v Chelmsford CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Wimborne Town 29%, the draw 27% and Chelmsford City 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Chelmsford City to win at 44%. Wimborne Town are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws).
Salisbury v Eastbourne BoroughSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Salisbury 47%, the draw 22% and Eastbourne Borough 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Eastbourne Borough have won all of their last three.
Leiston v Guiseley AFCSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Leiston 45%, the draw 23% and Guiseley AFC 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Leiston are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Guiseley AFC are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v MorecambeSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes AFC Rushden & Diamonds 42%, the draw 26% and Morecambe 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.95 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. AFC Rushden & Diamonds have won all of their last three.
Southend v BerkhamstedSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Southend 28%, the draw 22% and Berkhamsted 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Berkhamsted to win at 50%. Berkhamsted have won all of their last three.
Chesham United v Forest GreenSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Chesham United 56%, the draw 17% and Forest Green 27%. The likeliest score is 3-2 (6%), 5.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 84%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 75%.
Barrow v Gloucester CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Barrow 14%, the draw 18% and Gloucester City 68%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Gloucester City to win at 68%. Gloucester City are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Eastleigh v Brentwood TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Eastleigh 28%, the draw 22% and Brentwood Town 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Brentwood Town to win at 49%. Brentwood Town are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Uxbridge v AFC HornchurchSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Uxbridge 57%, the draw 21% and AFC Hornchurch 22%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Uxbridge to win at 57%. Uxbridge are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Sholing v SE DonsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Sholing 35%, the draw 24% and SE Dons 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Sholing have won all of their last three; SE Dons have won all of their last three.
FC Halifax Town v South ShieldsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes FC Halifax Town 17%, the draw 18% and South Shields 65%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is South Shields to win at 65%.
Sutton Utd v Truro CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Sutton Utd 26%, the draw 23% and Truro City 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Truro City to win at 51%. Truro City are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw).
Aldershot Town v Tadley CallevaSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Aldershot Town 30%, the draw 23% and Tadley Calleva 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Tadley Calleva to win at 46%. Tadley Calleva have won all of their last three.
Macclesfield v Anstey NomadsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Macclesfield 36%, the draw 23% and Anstey Nomads 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Macclesfield are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws); Anstey Nomads have won all of their last three.
AFC Fylde v Atherton CollieriesSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes AFC Fylde 28%, the draw 22% and Atherton Collieries 50%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Atherton Collieries to win at 50%. Atherton Collieries are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Bedford Town v Cray WanderersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Bedford Town 36%, the draw 25% and Cray Wanderers 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Bedford Town are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw); Cray Wanderers are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).
Hartlepool v MarineSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Hartlepool 31%, the draw 23% and Marine 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is Marine to win at 47%.
Carlisle v TamworthSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Carlisle 41%, the draw 23% and Tamworth 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%.
Spalding United v AlvechurchSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Spalding United 39%, the draw 25% and Alvechurch 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Spalding United are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw); Alvechurch have won all of their last three.
Gateshead v Stafford RangersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Gateshead 32%, the draw 24% and Stafford Rangers 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Stafford Rangers are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Torquay v Oxford CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Torquay 37%, the draw 22% and Oxford City 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is both teams to score at 74%.
Dover v Dorking WanderersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Dover 39%, the draw 21% and Dorking Wanderers 40%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 77%. The headline call is both teams to score at 77%. Dorking Wanderers are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws).
Boreham Wood v WokingSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Boreham Wood 48%, the draw 22% and Woking 31%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%.
Chorley v Worcester CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Chorley 41%, the draw 25% and Worcester City 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Worcester City are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Kidderminster Harriers v Solihull MoorsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Kidderminster Harriers 40%, the draw 23% and Solihull Moors 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%.
Leatherhead v Yeovil TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Leatherhead 54%, the draw 24% and Yeovil Town 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Leatherhead to win at 54%. Leatherhead have won all of their last three.
Altrincham v United of ManchesterSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Altrincham 19%, the draw 19% and United of Manchester 61%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is United of Manchester to win at 61%. United of Manchester have won all of their last three.
About these predictions
- How are FA Cup predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are FA Cup predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.
