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FA Cup predictions: 4th round qualifying (17 October 2026)
Every FA Cup match in 4th round qualifying with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
FA Cup, 4th round qualifying: 32 matches, played on 17 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Bury, 82% to beat Harrogate Town at home; the most evenly balanced game is Dover v Dorking Wanderers (Dover 39%, draw 21%, Dorking Wanderers 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Chesham United v Forest Green, at 5.13; the tightest looks Wimborne Town v Chelmsford City, at 2.63.
Match by match
Bury v Harrogate TownSat 17 Oct, 12:30
Our model makes Bury 82%, the draw 11% and Harrogate Town 7%. The likeliest score is 3-0 (8%), 4.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Bury to win at 82%. Bury have won all of their last three.
AFC Fylde v Atherton CollieriesSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes AFC Fylde 28%, the draw 22% and Atherton Collieries 50%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Atherton Collieries to win at 50%. Atherton Collieries are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
AFC Rushden & Diamonds v MorecambeSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes AFC Rushden & Diamonds 42%, the draw 26% and Morecambe 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.95 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. AFC Rushden & Diamonds have won all of their last three.
Aldershot Town v Tadley CallevaSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Aldershot Town 30%, the draw 23% and Tadley Calleva 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Tadley Calleva to win at 46%. Tadley Calleva have won all of their last three.
Altrincham v United of ManchesterSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Altrincham 19%, the draw 19% and United of Manchester 61%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is United of Manchester to win at 61%. United of Manchester have won all of their last three.
Barrow v Gloucester CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Barrow 14%, the draw 18% and Gloucester City 68%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Gloucester City to win at 68%. Gloucester City are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Bedford Town v Cray WanderersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Bedford Town 36%, the draw 25% and Cray Wanderers 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.12 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Bedford Town are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw); Cray Wanderers are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).
Boreham Wood v WokingSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Boreham Wood 48%, the draw 22% and Woking 31%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (8%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%.
Boston United v ScunthorpeSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Boston United 37%, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%.
Carlisle v TamworthSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Carlisle 41%, the draw 23% and Tamworth 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%.
Chesham United v Forest GreenSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Chesham United 56%, the draw 17% and Forest Green 27%. The likeliest score is 3-2 (6%), 5.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 84%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 75%.
Chorley v Worcester CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Chorley 41%, the draw 25% and Worcester City 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Worcester City are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Dover v Dorking WanderersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Dover 39%, the draw 21% and Dorking Wanderers 40%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 77%. The headline call is both teams to score at 77%. Dorking Wanderers are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws).
Eastleigh v Brentwood TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Eastleigh 28%, the draw 22% and Brentwood Town 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Brentwood Town to win at 49%. Brentwood Town are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
FC Halifax Town v South ShieldsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes FC Halifax Town 17%, the draw 18% and South Shields 65%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is South Shields to win at 65%.
Gateshead v Stafford RangersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Gateshead 32%, the draw 24% and Stafford Rangers 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Stafford Rangers are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Harborough Town v Spennymoor TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Harborough Town 33%, the draw 24% and Spennymoor Town 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is both teams to score at 67%.
Hartlepool v MarineSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Hartlepool 31%, the draw 23% and Marine 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is Marine to win at 47%.
Kidderminster Harriers v Solihull MoorsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Kidderminster Harriers 40%, the draw 23% and Solihull Moors 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%.
Leatherhead v Yeovil TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Leatherhead 54%, the draw 24% and Yeovil Town 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Leatherhead to win at 54%. Leatherhead have won all of their last three.
Leiston v Guiseley AFCSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Leiston 45%, the draw 23% and Guiseley AFC 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Leiston are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw); Guiseley AFC are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Macclesfield v Anstey NomadsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Macclesfield 36%, the draw 23% and Anstey Nomads 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Macclesfield are unbeaten in three (one win, two draws); Anstey Nomads have won all of their last three.
Plymouth Parkway v Chertsey TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Plymouth Parkway 41%, the draw 25% and Chertsey Town 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Plymouth Parkway have won all of their last three; Chertsey Town are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Salisbury v Eastbourne BoroughSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Salisbury 47%, the draw 22% and Eastbourne Borough 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is both teams to score at 70%. Eastbourne Borough have won all of their last three.
Sholing v SE DonsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Sholing 35%, the draw 24% and SE Dons 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. Sholing have won all of their last three; SE Dons have won all of their last three.
Southend v BerkhamstedSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Southend 28%, the draw 22% and Berkhamsted 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Berkhamsted to win at 50%. Berkhamsted have won all of their last three.
Spalding United v AlvechurchSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Spalding United 39%, the draw 25% and Alvechurch 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Spalding United are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw); Alvechurch have won all of their last three.
Sutton Utd v Truro CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Sutton Utd 26%, the draw 23% and Truro City 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Truro City to win at 51%. Truro City are unbeaten in three (two wins, one draw).
Torquay v Oxford CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Torquay 37%, the draw 22% and Oxford City 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is both teams to score at 74%.
Uxbridge v AFC HornchurchSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Uxbridge 57%, the draw 21% and AFC Hornchurch 22%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.52 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Uxbridge to win at 57%. Uxbridge are unbeaten in four (three wins, one draw).
Wealdstone v WorthingSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Wealdstone 38%, the draw 22% and Worthing 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.72 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is both teams to score at 72%.
Wimborne Town v Chelmsford CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Our model makes Wimborne Town 29%, the draw 27% and Chelmsford City 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Chelmsford City to win at 44%. Wimborne Town are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws).
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
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The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
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