FA Cup · Review
FA Cup 4th round qualifying review: results, xG and what the model said
Every FA Cup result from 4th round qualifying against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.
Published · Written from the site’s own data
FA Cup, 4th round qualifying (17 October 2026), is complete: 32 matches, 89 goals (2.78 a game), 15 home wins, eleven draws and six away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in 18 of the 32 and both teams scored in 17.
The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Bury v Harrogate Town (1–1), which it had at 11%; the one it rated most likely was Berkhamsted's win in Southend v Berkhamsted (1–2), at 50%.
Match by match
Bury 1–1 Harrogate TownSat 17 Oct, 12:30
Before kick-off the model had Bury 82%, the draw 11% and Harrogate Town 7%, with Bury favoured; it put the draw at 11%. The likeliest score had been 3-0. The headline call, Bury to win at 82%, did not come in.
AFC Fylde 5–0 Atherton CollieriesSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had AFC Fylde 28%, the draw 22% and Atherton Collieries 50%, with Atherton Collieries favoured; it put AFC Fylde winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, Atherton Collieries to win at 50%, did not come in.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2–1 MorecambeSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had AFC Rushden & Diamonds 42%, the draw 26% and Morecambe 33%, so AFC Rushden & Diamonds winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 60%, came in.
Aldershot Town 2–2 Tadley CallevaSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Aldershot Town 30%, the draw 23% and Tadley Calleva 46%, with Tadley Calleva favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Tadley Calleva to win at 46%, did not come in.
Altrincham 0–0 United of ManchesterSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Altrincham 19%, the draw 19% and United of Manchester 61%, with United of Manchester favoured; it put the draw at 19%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, United of Manchester to win at 61%, did not come in.
Barrow 0–0 Gloucester CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Barrow 14%, the draw 18% and Gloucester City 68%, with Gloucester City favoured; it put the draw at 18%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, Gloucester City to win at 68%, did not come in.
Bedford Town 0–0 Cray WanderersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Bedford Town 36%, the draw 25% and Cray Wanderers 40%, with Cray Wanderers favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in.
Boreham Wood 3–2 WokingSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Boreham Wood 48%, the draw 22% and Woking 31%, so Boreham Wood winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, came in.
Boston United 1–3 ScunthorpeSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Boston United 37%, the draw 23% and Scunthorpe 40%, so Scunthorpe winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 71%, came in.
Carlisle 2–1 TamworthSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Carlisle 41%, the draw 23% and Tamworth 36%, so Carlisle winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, came in.
Chesham United 0–0 Forest GreenSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Chesham United 56%, the draw 17% and Forest Green 27%, with Chesham United favoured; it put the draw at 17%. The likeliest score had been 3-2. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 75%, did not come in.
Chorley 1–1 Worcester CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Chorley 41%, the draw 25% and Worcester City 34%, with Chorley favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 62%, came in.
Dover 3–2 Dorking WanderersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Dover 39%, the draw 21% and Dorking Wanderers 40%, with Dorking Wanderers favoured; it put Dover winning at 39%. The likeliest score had been 2-2. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 60%, came in.
Eastleigh 3–2 Brentwood TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Eastleigh 28%, the draw 22% and Brentwood Town 49%, with Brentwood Town favoured; it put Eastleigh winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Brentwood Town to win at 49%, did not come in.
FC Halifax Town 3–2 South ShieldsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had FC Halifax Town 17%, the draw 18% and South Shields 65%, with South Shields favoured; it put FC Halifax Town winning at 17%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. The headline call, South Shields to win at 65%, did not come in.
Gateshead 1–1 Stafford RangersSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Gateshead 32%, the draw 24% and Stafford Rangers 44%, with Stafford Rangers favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, came in.
Harborough Town 3–1 Spennymoor TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Harborough Town 33%, the draw 24% and Spennymoor Town 43%, with Spennymoor Town favoured; it put Harborough Town winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 67%, came in.
Hartlepool 0–2 MarineSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Hartlepool 31%, the draw 23% and Marine 47%, so Marine winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Marine to win at 47%, came in.
Kidderminster Harriers 2–1 Solihull MoorsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Kidderminster Harriers 40%, the draw 23% and Solihull Moors 36%, so Kidderminster Harriers winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 68%, came in.
Leatherhead 3–3 Yeovil TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Leatherhead 54%, the draw 24% and Yeovil Town 22%, with Leatherhead favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Leatherhead to win at 54%, did not come in.
Leiston 0–3 Guiseley AFCSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Leiston 45%, the draw 23% and Guiseley AFC 32%, with Leiston favoured; it put Guiseley AFC winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 66%, did not come in.
Macclesfield 1–1 Anstey NomadsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Macclesfield 36%, the draw 23% and Anstey Nomads 41%, with Anstey Nomads favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. The headline call, both teams to score at 69%, came in.
Plymouth Parkway 2–0 Chertsey TownSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Plymouth Parkway 41%, the draw 25% and Chertsey Town 34%, so Plymouth Parkway winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 63%, did not come in.
Salisbury 3–0 Eastbourne BoroughSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Salisbury 47%, the draw 22% and Eastbourne Borough 31%, so Salisbury winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 70%, did not come in.
Sholing 2–0 SE DonsSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Sholing 35%, the draw 24% and SE Dons 41%, with SE Dons favoured; it put Sholing winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 65%, did not come in.
Southend 1–2 BerkhamstedSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Southend 28%, the draw 22% and Berkhamsted 50%, so Berkhamsted winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Berkhamsted to win at 50%, came in.
Spalding United 2–2 AlvechurchSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Spalding United 39%, the draw 25% and Alvechurch 35%, with Spalding United favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 61%, came in.
Sutton Utd 1–0 Truro CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Sutton Utd 26%, the draw 23% and Truro City 51%, with Truro City favoured; it put Sutton Utd winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Truro City to win at 51%, did not come in.
Torquay 0–1 Oxford CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Torquay 37%, the draw 22% and Oxford City 42%, so Oxford City winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 74%, did not come in.
Uxbridge 0–4 AFC HornchurchSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Uxbridge 57%, the draw 21% and AFC Hornchurch 22%, with Uxbridge favoured; it put AFC Hornchurch winning at 22%. The likeliest score had been 2-1. The headline call, Uxbridge to win at 57%, did not come in.
Wealdstone 3–0 WorthingSat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Wealdstone 38%, the draw 22% and Worthing 40%, with Worthing favoured; it put Wealdstone winning at 38%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, both teams to score at 72%, did not come in.
Wimborne Town 1–0 Chelmsford CitySat 17 Oct, 15:00
Before kick-off the model had Wimborne Town 29%, the draw 27% and Chelmsford City 44%, with Chelmsford City favoured; it put Wimborne Town winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. The headline call, Chelmsford City to win at 44%, did not come in.
About these figures
The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.
The results
Each result with the headline call the model published and whether it came in.
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Probabilities are statistical opinion, not advice, and no outcome is certain. Past predictions don’t indicate future results. Over 18s only; never stake money you cannot afford to lose.