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FA Cup predictions: 1/128-finals (6–9 November 2026)
Every FA Cup match in 1/128-finals with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.
Published , updated · Written from the site’s own data
FA Cup, 1/128-finals: 40 matches, played across 6–9 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.
The strongest favourite is Barnet, 65% to beat Tranmere at home; the most evenly balanced game is Gillingham v Barrow (Gillingham 38%, draw 23%, Barrow 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cheltenham v FC Halifax Town, at 4.35; the tightest looks Bradford v Marine, at 2.28.
Match by match
Oxford City v LeicesterFri 6 Nov, 19:45
Our model makes Oxford City 64%, the draw 19% and Leicester 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Oxford City to win at 64%. Leicester are 10th on 19 points from 13. Oxford City have won all of their last three; Leicester have won three of their last five.
Stafford Rangers v GrimsbySat 7 Nov, 12:00
Our model makes Stafford Rangers 55%, the draw 22% and Grimsby 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Stafford Rangers to win at 55%. Grimsby are 6th on 20 points from 14. Stafford Rangers are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Grimsby have won two of their last five.
Accrington ST v WycombeSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Accrington ST 40%, the draw 23% and Wycombe 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. The headline call is both teams to score at 71%. Accrington ST are 9th on 19 points from 14; Wycombe are 13th on 18 points from 13. Accrington ST are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Wycombe have won two of their last five.
AFC Hornchurch v BlackpoolSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes AFC Hornchurch 60%, the draw 20% and Blackpool 20%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is AFC Hornchurch to win at 60%. Blackpool are 19th on 12 points from 12. Blackpool have won one of their last five.
Barnet v TranmereSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Barnet 65%, the draw 18% and Tranmere 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 4.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Barnet to win at 65%. Barnet are 2nd on 26 points from 13; Tranmere are 11th on 19 points from 14. Barnet have won two of their last five; Tranmere have won two of their last five. Barnet have won three of the sides' last three meetings.
Barnsley v Aldershot TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Barnsley 24%, the draw 21% and Aldershot Town 55%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is Aldershot Town to win at 55%. Barnsley are 23rd on 9 points from 12. Barnsley are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).
Boreham Wood v WiganSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Boreham Wood 55%, the draw 21% and Wigan 24%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.53 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Boreham Wood to win at 55%. Wigan are 21st on 10 points from 13. Wigan have won two of their last five.
Bradford v MarineSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Bradford 34%, the draw 30% and Marine 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Bradford are 7th on 22 points from 13. Bradford have won one of their last five; Marine have won all of their last three.
Bristol Rovers v Cambridge UnitedSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Bristol Rovers 28%, the draw 24% and Cambridge United 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Cambridge United to win at 48%. Bristol Rovers are 17th on 16 points from 14; Cambridge United are 8th on 21 points from 14. Bristol Rovers are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Cambridge United have won one of their last five. Cambridge United have won two of the sides' last three meetings.
Bromley v RotherhamSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Bromley 49%, the draw 22% and Rotherham 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Bromley are 24th on 9 points from 13; Rotherham are 22nd on 12 points from 14. Bromley are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Rotherham are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).
Burton Albion v AFC Rushden & DiamondsSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Burton Albion 28%, the draw 24% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is AFC Rushden & Diamonds to win at 49%. Burton Albion are 15th on 17 points from 14. Burton Albion have won one of their last five; AFC Rushden & Diamonds have won all of their last four.
Carlisle v Salford CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Carlisle 36%, the draw 23% and Salford City 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Salford City are 1st on 31 points from 14. Salford City have won all of their last five.
Cheltenham v FC Halifax TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Cheltenham 28%, the draw 20% and FC Halifax Town 52%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (7%), 4.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 78%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 63%. Cheltenham are 5th on 21 points from 14. Cheltenham have won two of their last five.
Chesterfield v Yeovil TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Chesterfield 36%, the draw 20% and Yeovil Town 43%. The likeliest score is 2-2 (7%), 4.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 78%. The headline call is both teams to score at 78%. Chesterfield are 10th on 19 points from 14. Chesterfield have won one of their last five.
Colchester v Worcester CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Colchester 24%, the draw 27% and Worcester City 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Worcester City to win at 50%. Colchester are 23rd on 12 points from 13. Colchester are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Worcester City are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).
Crewe v AFC WimbledonSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Crewe 53%, the draw 24% and AFC Wimbledon 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Crewe to win at 53%. Crewe are 4th on 22 points from 14; AFC Wimbledon are 18th on 13 points from 13. Crewe have won two of their last five; AFC Wimbledon are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).
Dover v WealdstoneSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Dover 42%, the draw 22% and Wealdstone 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. The headline call is both teams to score at 74%. Dover have won all of their last three.
Eastleigh v ShrewsburySat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Eastleigh 58%, the draw 21% and Shrewsbury 21%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (9%), 3.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Eastleigh to win at 58%. Shrewsbury are 15th on 18 points from 14. Shrewsbury have won two of their last five.
Fleetwood Town v RochdaleSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Fleetwood Town 54%, the draw 23% and Rochdale 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Fleetwood Town to win at 54%. Fleetwood Town are 16th on 17 points from 14; Rochdale are 19th on 15 points from 14. Fleetwood Town have won two of their last five; Rochdale are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).
Gillingham v BarrowSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Gillingham 38%, the draw 23% and Barrow 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.43 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is both teams to score at 68%. Gillingham are 8th on 20 points from 14. Gillingham have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Guiseley AFC v Sutton UtdSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Guiseley AFC 54%, the draw 23% and Sutton Utd 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Guiseley AFC to win at 54%. Guiseley AFC are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).
Harrogate Town v AFC FyldeSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Harrogate Town 20%, the draw 21% and AFC Fylde 59%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), 3.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is AFC Fylde to win at 59%.
Huddersfield v Exeter CitySat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Huddersfield 55%, the draw 24% and Exeter City 21%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Huddersfield to win at 55%. Huddersfield are 1st on 28 points from 13; Exeter City are 12th on 19 points from 14. Huddersfield are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Exeter City have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Kidderminster Harriers v DoncasterSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Kidderminster Harriers 46%, the draw 25% and Doncaster 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.08 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is both teams to score at 61%. Doncaster are 20th on 12 points from 13. Doncaster have won one of their last five.
Leyton Orient v Harborough TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Leyton Orient 24%, the draw 24% and Harborough Town 52%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Harborough Town to win at 52%. Leyton Orient are 14th on 17 points from 13. Leyton Orient have won two of their last five; Harborough Town have won all of their last three.
Luton v Forest GreenSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Luton 34%, the draw 23% and Forest Green 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is both teams to score at 69%. Luton are 4th on 23 points from 13. Luton have won four of their last five.
Mansfield Town v MacclesfieldSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Mansfield Town 33%, the draw 25% and Macclesfield 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.16 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Mansfield Town are 12th on 18 points from 12. Mansfield Town have won three of their last five; Macclesfield are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).
Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon TownSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Milton Keynes Dons 50%, the draw 23% and Swindon Town 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Milton Keynes Dons are 11th on 18 points from 13; Swindon Town are 13th on 19 points from 14. Milton Keynes Dons have won four of their last five; Swindon Town have won two of their last five. Milton Keynes Dons have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Newport County v WalsallSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Newport County 33%, the draw 26% and Walsall 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is both teams to score at 60%. Newport County are 14th on 18 points from 14; Walsall are 3rd on 22 points from 13. Newport County have won two of their last five; Walsall have won two of their last five. Walsall have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Oxford United v StevenageSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Oxford United 44%, the draw 28% and Stevenage 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. Oxford United are 3rd on 23 points from 12; Stevenage are 16th on 16 points from 12. Oxford United are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Stevenage have won two of their last five.
Plymouth v AlvechurchSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Plymouth 27%, the draw 21% and Alvechurch 52%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.90 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is Alvechurch to win at 52%. Plymouth are 5th on 23 points from 14. Plymouth have won two of their last five; Alvechurch are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).
Port Vale v ScunthorpeSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Port Vale 22%, the draw 25% and Scunthorpe 53%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Scunthorpe to win at 53%. Port Vale are 18th on 15 points from 12. Port Vale have won three of their last five.
Salisbury v SholingSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Salisbury 48%, the draw 24% and Sholing 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Salisbury to win at 48%. Salisbury have won all of their last three; Sholing have won all of their last four.
York v NorthamptonSat 7 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes York 57%, the draw 23% and Northampton 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.99 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is York to win at 57%. York are 7th on 20 points from 14; Northampton are 20th on 14 points from 12. York have won one of their last five; Northampton have won two of their last five.
Altrincham v Notts CountySat 7 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Altrincham 52%, the draw 23% and Notts County 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Altrincham to win at 52%. Notts County are 17th on 14 points from 12. Notts County have won two of their last five.
Peterborough v ReadingSat 7 Nov, 20:00
Our model makes Peterborough 25%, the draw 21% and Reading 55%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.75 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is Reading to win at 55%. Peterborough are 22nd on 10 points from 13; Reading are 6th on 22 points from 13. Peterborough have won one of their last five; Reading have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Cray Wanderers v Stockport CountySun 8 Nov, 14:15
Our model makes Cray Wanderers 40%, the draw 27% and Stockport County 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.67 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Cray Wanderers to win at 40%. Stockport County are 2nd on 26 points from 14. Cray Wanderers are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Stockport County have won three of their last five.
Wimborne Town v Crawley TownSun 8 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Wimborne Town 55%, the draw 26% and Crawley Town 18%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (14%), 2.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Crawley Town are 24th on 9 points from 12. Wimborne Town are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Crawley Town have won one of their last five.
Oldham v Sheffield WednesdaySun 8 Nov, 17:15
Our model makes Oldham 43%, the draw 26% and Sheffield Wednesday 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.93 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Oldham are 21st on 12 points from 13; Sheffield Wednesday are 9th on 20 points from 13. Oldham have won one of their last five; Sheffield Wednesday have won one of their last five.
Plymouth Parkway v BerkhamstedMon 9 Nov, 19:30
Our model makes Plymouth Parkway 40%, the draw 25% and Berkhamsted 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is both teams to score at 64%. Plymouth Parkway have won all of their last four; Berkhamsted have won all of their last four.
How to read these
Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.
A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.
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The current probability and headline call for each match, updated as forecasts are published; the text above is as written.
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