Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5LWWLL5th2–0FC Halifax Town won 1 of the last 2LW
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Cheltenham
FC Halifax Town
5
Shots
8
4
Shots on target
2
2
Corners
3
15
Fouls
7
1
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
0
0
Offsides
2
—
Passes
—
53%
Possession %
47%
—
xG
—
28%
20%
52%
1 · CheltenhamXFC Halifax Town · 2
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
81%
Over 3.5
63%
Both score
78%
Model pick
FC Halifax Town 52%
Likely score
1-2 7%
Expected goals
1.86 – 2.50
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Cheltenham
28.5%
3.51
2.30 Bet365
43.5%
-15.0
Match result
Draw
19.6%
5.11
4.00 Betfair
25.0%
-5.4
Match result
FC Halifax Town
51.9%
1.93
3.60 Bet365
27.8%
+24.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
93.4%
1.07
1.20 Betfair
83.3%
+10.1
Total goals
Under 1.5
6.6%
15.13
5.00 Bet365
20.0%
-13.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
80.9%
1.24
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
+19.1
Total goals
Under 2.5
19.1%
5.23
2.38 Betfair
42.0%
-22.9
Total goals
Over 3.5
63.2%
1.58
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
+24.0
Total goals
Under 3.5
36.8%
2.71
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-28.5
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
77.7%
1.29
1.57 Bet365
63.7%
+14.0
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
22.3%
4.48
2.55 Betfair
39.2%
-16.9
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
FC Halifax Town favoured against Cheltenham
Our model makes Cheltenham 28% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 20% and FC Halifax Town at 52%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Cheltenham against 2.50 for FC Halifax Town — a substantial edge to FC Halifax Town on expected output. A combined 4.35 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 81% and both teams to score at 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 7%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cheltenham
Metric
FC Halifax Town
1.60
Goals scored
3.00 (better)
2.00
Goals conceded
2.00
1.32
Expected goals (xG)
—
—
Big chances *
—
3.00
Shots on target
7.00 (better)
9.20
Total shots
20.00 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.60
Corners
7.00 (better)
48.4
Possession %
58.0 (better)
398
Passes
—
—
Tackles
—
12.80
Fouls
—
3.20
Offsides
—
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.40
Yellow cards
1.00 (better)
0.20
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Cheltenham v 
FC Halifax Town