Stafford Rangers won 2 of the last 5DWDWD2–23–3 aet, 2–3 pensGrimsby won 2 of the last 5WWDLL6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Stafford Rangers
Grimsby
12
Shots
29
6
Shots on target
10
8
Corners
9
22
Fouls
14
4
Yellow cards
3
0
Red cards
0
6
Offsides
3
281
Passes
533
46%
Possession %
54%
—
xG
—
55%
22%
24%
1 · Stafford RangersXGrimsby · 2
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
46%
Both score
66%
Model pick
Stafford Rangers 55%
Likely score
2-1 9%
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.36
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Match result
Stafford Rangers
54.5%
1.83
7.50 Bet365
13.3%
+41.2
Match result
Draw
21.7%
4.61
5.40 Dafabet
18.5%
+3.2
Match result
Grimsby
23.8%
4.21
1.39 Dafabet
71.9%
-48.2
Total goals
Over 1.5
86.6%
1.15
1.16 Betano
86.2%
+0.4
Total goals
Under 1.5
13.4%
7.48
6.00 Betfair
16.7%
-3.3
Total goals
Over 2.5
67.5%
1.48
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
+2.2
Total goals
Under 2.5
32.5%
3.08
2.63 Betfair
38.0%
-5.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
45.9%
2.18
2.25 Betfair
44.4%
+1.4
Total goals
Under 3.5
54.1%
1.85
1.62 Bet365
61.7%
-7.6
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
65.8%
1.52
1.75 Bet365
57.1%
+8.7
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
34.2%
2.92
2.05 Betfair
48.8%
-14.6
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Stafford Rangers favoured against Grimsby
Our model makes Stafford Rangers 54% to win this FA Cup fixture, with the draw at 22% and Grimsby at 24%. The goal projection is 2.12 for Stafford Rangers against 1.36 for Grimsby — a substantial edge to Stafford Rangers on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Stafford Rangers
Metric
Grimsby
1.80 (better)
Goals scored
1.20
1.40
Goals conceded
1.20 (better)
—
Expected goals (xG)
2.10
—
Big chances *
—
7.00 (better)
Shots on target
5.20
13.33
Total shots
16.60 (better)
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
4.33
Corners
6.80 (better)
45.7
Possession %
52.2 (better)
—
Passes
393
—
Tackles
—
—
Fouls
10.20
—
Offsides
1.80
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.00 (better)
Yellow cards
2.80
0.00 (better)
Red cards
0.33
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Stafford Rangers v 
Grimsby